Mirassol vs Flamengo preview by Bez for TerraceBet

Brasileirão · Regular Season - 23 FT · Mirassol 1-5 Flamengo TBC

Mirassol vs Flamengo: Flamengo to win

Mirassol host Flamengo in a high‑scoring clash where the model gives Flamengo a 47 % chance to win and predicts 62 % chance of over 2.5 goals.

Bez — South America Writer, Brasileirão, Argentine Primera División & South American football

Stats-first, no filler, model-backed picks

Bez's Take

Headline Pick

Flamengo to win Won

Solid · Higher xG

Both Teams to Score

BTTS — Yes Won

62.9% model probability

Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Won

62.0% model probability

Both sides arrive with contrasting recent form – Mirassol have been erratic, while Flamengo have rebounded from two draws with a win, setting up a test of defensive solidity at the Estádio Municipal.

Bez's Verdict

Solid

Flamengo to win Won Solid lean Solid · Higher xG

Flamengo’s 47 % win probability, backed by a superior expected‑goals tally and a defensive record of 0.9 goals‑against away, makes them the clear favorite.

Show the maths

The model assigns Mirassol 30 % and Flamengo 47 % to win, leaving a 22.9 % draw. Flamengo’s 1.8 expected goals exceed Mirassol’s 1.4, creating a 0.4 xG advantage. Coupled with Flamengo’s strong away defence (0.9 GA) versus Mirassol’s 1.2 GA at home, the probability leans toward a Flamengo victory, which the model reflects in the 47 % win rating.

Pick 2 · Both Teams to Score

Both Teams to Score — Yes Won 62.9% model probability

With Mirassol averaging 1.4 expected goals and Flamengo averaging 1.8, the model gives a 62.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 37.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.

Show the maths

BTTS probability is derived from each side's expected goals (Mirassol 1.4, Flamengo 1.8) run through the same Poisson goal-expectancy model used for the match result: 62.9% of simulated outcomes have both teams scoring at least once, versus 37.1% where at least one side is shut out.

Pick 3 · Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Won 62.0% model probability

Combined expected goals of 3.2 (Mirassol 1.4 + Flamengo 1.8) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 62.0% chance against 38.0% for Under.

Show the maths

Total goals probability comes from the same Poisson model summing both teams' expected goals (Mirassol 1.4 + Flamengo 1.8 = 3.2 combined): 62.0% of simulated outcomes finish with 3 or more goals, versus 38.0% finishing with 2 or fewer.

Match Result Model

Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Mirassol at 30.0%, the draw at 22.9%, and Flamengo at 47.0% to win.

Most Likely Scoreline

The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 10.3% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.

The Numbers Behind the Headline

Mirassol expected goals

1.4

Flamengo expected goals

1.8

Model BTTS probability

62.9%

Most likely scorelines

11-1

10.3%

21-2

9.2%

30-1

7.3%

Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.

Form Guide — Last 5

Mirassol

LWDWL

Mirassol’s recent five results are L‑0‑1 at Atletico Paraná, W‑2‑1 over Grêmio, D‑1‑1 with Vasco, W‑2‑1 versus Remo and L‑1‑3 to Cruzeiro. The two wins both came with two goals scored, but the three losses show vulnerability, underscoring why a win is less likely here.

Flamengo

WWDDW

Flamengo have posted W‑3‑0 over Coritiba, W‑4‑0 at Chapecoense‑SC, D‑1‑1 versus São Paulo, D‑1‑1 with Internacional and W‑2‑0 against Vitória. Three clean sheets in five games highlight defensive stability, supporting the pick of a Flamengo win.

Head-to-Head

The head‑to‑head record shows a 3‑3 draw on 2025‑12‑06 and a 2‑1 Flamengo win on 2025‑08‑09, with the most recent 2026‑02‑25 meeting listed without a result, offering no clear pattern against the pick.

Date	Result	Competition
25 Feb 2026	Flamengo None-None Mirassol	Serie A
6 Dec 2025	Mirassol 3-3 Flamengo	Serie A
9 Aug 2025	Flamengo 2-1 Mirassol	Serie A

Team News (Pregame)

Mirassol: Jose Aldo (Muscle Injury), Negueba (Knee Injury), Walter (Inactive), Alesson (Inactive)

Flamengo: Luiz Araujo (Knee Injury), N. de la Cruz (Yellow Cards), Lucas Paqueta (Muscle Injury), G. Plata (Knee Injury)

Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.

Talking Points · Deano

Flamengo edged Mirassol 2-1 last year

3 talking points · 1 min read →

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won Mirassol vs Flamengo?

Flamengo won 5-1. Our pre-match pick was Flamengo to win.

What was the final score of Mirassol vs Flamengo?

Mirassol 1-5 Flamengo (full time).

When was Mirassol vs Flamengo?

Mirassol played Flamengo on Sun 16 Aug · 22:30 BST in the Brasileirão at TBC.

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The combination of higher firepower and tighter defence makes a Flamengo win the most probable outcome, while the xG gap points to plenty of goal chances on both sides.

Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org

Written by Bez

South America Writer, TerraceBet — Brasileirão, Argentine Primera División & South American football