Mirassol vs Palmeiras: Both teams to score - Yes
Palmeiras are modest favorites with a 51.5% win chance, but Mirassol's 1.3 xG and a 61.9% BTTS probability suggest both sides will find the net.
Mirassol host Palmeiras in a clash where the home side has been fragile defensively while the visitors have conceded few, setting up a potential open game.
Bez's Verdict
The model’s 61.9% BTTS probability, backed by Mirassol’s 1.3 xG and Palmeiras’ 1.9 xG, makes a double‑goal outcome the most probable outcome.
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With Mirassol averaging 1.3 expected goals and Palmeiras averaging 1.9, the model gives a 61.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 38.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.2 (Mirassol 1.3 + Palmeiras 1.9) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 62.0% chance against 38.0% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Mirassol at 26.2%, the draw at 22.4%, and Palmeiras at 51.5% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 10.1% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Mirassol
Mirassol’s recent five-game run (DWLLD) includes a 2-1 home win over Remo and a 1-1 away draw with Vasco da Gama, showing they can find the net even when not at home. Their 1-5 loss to Flamengo illustrates defensive frailty, reinforcing the view that they will likely score but also concede.
Palmeiras
Palmeiras’ five-game sequence (LWDLW) features a 4-0 away win at Vitoria and a 4-1 home victory over Vasco da Gama, confirming their ability to score multiple goals. The 2-3 away loss to Fluminense shows they can also be vulnerable defensively, supporting the expectation that both sides will score.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Palmeiras have won twice 1-0, Mirassol has won 2-1 in November 2025, and a 2-3 win for Palmeiras in February 2025, indicating a balanced head‑to‑head record that does not preclude both teams scoring.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 15 Mar 2026 | Palmeiras 1-0 Mirassol | Serie A |
| 17 Jan 2026 | Palmeiras 1-0 Mirassol | Paulista - A1 |
| 9 Nov 2025 | Mirassol 2-1 Palmeiras | Serie A |
| 16 Jul 2025 | Palmeiras 1-1 Mirassol | Serie A |
| 23 Feb 2025 | Mirassol 2-3 Palmeiras | Paulista - A1 |
Team News (Pregame)
Mirassol: Denilson (Yellow Cards), Edson Carioca (Injury), Jose Aldo (Muscle Injury), Negueba (Knee Injury)
Palmeiras: Jefte (Knee Injury), Paulinho (Muscle Injury), J. Piquerez (Foot Injury), R. Sosa (Muscle Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Mirassol vs Palmeiras?
Mirassol and Palmeiras drew 1-1. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score - Yes.
What was the final score of Mirassol vs Palmeiras?
Mirassol 1-1 Palmeiras (full time).
When was Mirassol vs Palmeiras?
Mirassol played Palmeiras on Sun 30 Aug · 22:30 BST in the Brasileirão at TBC.
More Brasileirão This Week
See all Brasileirão fixtures →Given the goal averages and the high BTTS likelihood, the safest read is that both sides will put a ball in the net.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
