Newells Old Boys vs Banfield: Newells Old Boys to win
Newells Old Boys hold a 41.6% win probability against Banfield's 24.9%, while the expected goal line sits at 1.0 to 0.7. The model’s top scorelines are 0‑0 and 1‑0, indicating a tight, low‑scoring contest.
Both clubs arrive with mixed recent form – Newells have edged a 2‑0 win at home in their latest game, while Banfield secured a 1‑0 away victory over Racing Club. Their latest head‑to‑head record is heavily in Banfield’s favour, yet the home side’s defensive numbers suggest a contest that could tip in Newells’ direction.
Bez's Verdict
The home side’s higher expected goals (1.0 vs 0.7) and a 41.6% win probability make a narrow win the most probable result.
Show the maths
With Newells Old Boys averaging 1.0 expected goals and Banfield averaging 0.7, the model gives a 68.2% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 31.8% it gives to both teams scoring.
Show the maths
Combined expected goals of 1.7 (Newells Old Boys 1.0 + Banfield 0.7) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 75.7% chance against 24.3% for Over.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Newells Old Boys at 41.6%, the draw at 33.5%, and Banfield at 24.9% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-0 at 18.3% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Newells Old Boys
Newells’ last five league results are W‑L‑D‑L‑W, highlighted by a 2‑0 home win over Deportivo Riestra and a 1‑0 home victory against Talleres Cordoba. Those wins, especially the clean‑sheet 2‑0, show the team can secure points at home, supporting a potential win in this fixture.
Banfield
Banfield’s recent form reads L‑W‑D‑L‑W, including a 3‑2 home win over Sarmiento Junin and a 1‑0 away win at Racing Club. The ability to win away, as seen against Racing, suggests they can score, but the overall mixed form underpins the model’s lower win probability for Banfield.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Banfield have won four times (including 3‑0 victories in February 2026 and January 2025) while Newells have only one win (2‑0 in February 2023), indicating Banfield dominance but not enough to offset Newells’ home advantage in the model.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 21 Feb 2026 | Banfield 3-0 Newells Old Boys | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 20 Jul 2025 | Newells Old Boys 1-2 Banfield | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 27 Jan 2025 | Banfield 3-0 Newells Old Boys | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 4 Jun 2024 | Banfield 2-0 Newells Old Boys | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 19 Feb 2023 | Newells Old Boys 2-0 Banfield | Liga Profesional Argentina |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Newells Old Boys vs Banfield?
Newells Old Boys won 2-1. Our pre-match pick was Newells Old Boys to win.
What was the final score of Newells Old Boys vs Banfield?
Newells Old Boys 2-1 Banfield (full time).
When was Newells Old Boys vs Banfield?
Newells Old Boys played Banfield on Sun 23 Aug · 01:00 BST in the Argentine Primera División at Estadio Marcelo Bielsa.
More Argentine Primera División This Week
See all Argentine Primera División fixtures →Given the modest scoring expected and Newells’ home advantage reflected in the xG differential, the most likely outcome is a narrow victory for the hosts.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
