North Ferriby vs Barton Town Old Boys preview by Robbo for TerraceBet

FA Cup · Round of 16 FT · North Ferriby 0-0 Barton Town Old Boys TBC

North Ferriby vs Barton Town Old Boys: North Ferriby to win

Both sides sit on identical expected‑goals of 1.35, but the model leans slightly toward a North Ferriby win despite the split probability. The match also carries a 54.9% chance of both sides finding the net.

Robbo — Lead Predictions Writer, Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups

Stats-first, no filler, model-backed picks

Robbo's Take

Headline Pick

North Ferriby to win Lost

Lean · Balanced xG

Both Teams to Score

BTTS — Yes Lost

54.9% model probability

Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Lost

50.6% model probability

The FA Cup tie pits North Ferriby against Barton Town Old Boys in a first‑round showdown where neither side has shown a clear scoring edge this season, as reflected by equal xG values.

Robbo's Verdict

Lean

North Ferriby to win Lost Slight lean Lean · Balanced xG

The model’s 37.1% win probability for North Ferriby exceeds that of a draw and matches the away side’s odds, making a home victory the most probable single outcome.

Show the maths

Both teams register an expected‑goals figure of 1.35, indicating equal attacking potency. The model translates this parity into identical 37.1% win chances, but because a win is a higher‑paying outcome than a draw, the home side’s probability becomes the headline pick. The draw sits at 25.8%, leaving the away win also at 37.1%, but the home advantage nudges the selection toward North Ferriby.

Pick 2 · Both Teams to Score

Both Teams to Score — Yes Lost 54.9% model probability

With North Ferriby averaging 1.35 expected goals and Barton Town Old Boys averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.

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BTTS probability is derived from each side's expected goals (North Ferriby 1.35, Barton Town Old Boys 1.35) run through the same Poisson goal-expectancy model used for the match result: 54.9% of simulated outcomes have both teams scoring at least once, versus 45.1% where at least one side is shut out.

Pick 3 · Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Lost 50.6% model probability

Combined expected goals of 2.7 (North Ferriby 1.35 + Barton Town Old Boys 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.

Show the maths

Total goals probability comes from the same Poisson model summing both teams' expected goals (North Ferriby 1.35 + Barton Town Old Boys 1.35 = 2.7 combined): 50.6% of simulated outcomes finish with 3 or more goals, versus 49.4% finishing with 2 or fewer.

Match Result Model

Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has North Ferriby at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Barton Town Old Boys at 37.1% to win.

Most Likely Scoreline

The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.

The Numbers Behind the Headline

North Ferriby expected goals

1.35

Barton Town Old Boys expected goals

1.35

Model BTTS probability

54.9%

Most likely scorelines

11-1

12.2%

20-1

9.1%

31-0

9.1%

Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.

Team News (Pregame)

No notable injury concerns were on record for either side heading into this match.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won North Ferriby vs Barton Town Old Boys?

North Ferriby and Barton Town Old Boys drew 0-0. Our pre-match pick was North Ferriby to win.

What was the final score of North Ferriby vs Barton Town Old Boys?

North Ferriby 0-0 Barton Town Old Boys (full time).

When was North Ferriby vs Barton Town Old Boys?

North Ferriby played Barton Town Old Boys on Sat 5 Sep · 14:00 BST in the FA Cup at TBC.

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Given the balanced xG and the model’s slight edge to a home win, the safest bet is to back North Ferriby to take all three points.

Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org

Written by Robbo

Lead Predictions Writer, TerraceBet — Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups