Northwich Victoria vs Atherton Collieries: Northwich Victoria to win
Northwich Victoria and Atherton Collieries are locked at 1.35 expected goals each, with the model rating both sides equally likely to win at 37.1%. The narrow edge comes from Northwich's recent 3-2 home win, nudging the odds in their favour.
The FA Cup tie pits a struggling Northwich Victoria side against an Atherton Collieries outfit with no form data on hand. With both clubs averaging just 1.35 goals per match this season, the fixture promises a tight contest where marginal differences matter.
Robbo's Verdict
The model assigns Northwich a 37.1% chance of victory, identical to Atherton but supported by their recent 3-2 win, suggesting they are marginally more likely to clinch the three points.
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With Northwich Victoria averaging 1.35 expected goals and Atherton Collieries averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Northwich Victoria 1.35 + Atherton Collieries 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Northwich Victoria at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Atherton Collieries at 37.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Northwich Victoria
Northwich's form list shows a 3-2 home win over Squires Gate, demonstrating they can score against comparable opposition, and a 1-1 away draw with Barnoldswick Town, proving they can hold their own defensively. Those two results illustrate a capacity to edge tight games, reinforcing the modest confidence in a home win.
Atherton Collieries
Atherton Collieries' recent league form is not provided, leaving a gap in direct performance insight. However, their season‑long expected goals of 1.35 suggests they are capable of matching Northwich's output, meaning the pick hinges more on Northwich's slight recent edge than on Atherton's form.
Head-to-Head
The only recent head‑to‑head meeting on 29 August 2020 ended 2‑0 to Northwich Victoria, a result that aligns with the model’s slight home‑win preference.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug 2020 | Northwich Victoria 2-0 Atherton Collieries | Friendlies Clubs |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Northwich Victoria vs Atherton Collieries?
Atherton Collieries won 3-2. Our pre-match pick was Northwich Victoria to win.
What was the final score of Northwich Victoria vs Atherton Collieries?
Northwich Victoria 2-3 Atherton Collieries (full time).
When was Northwich Victoria vs Atherton Collieries?
Northwich Victoria played Atherton Collieries on Sat 5 Sep · 15:00 BST in the FA Cup at TBC.
More FA Cup This Week
See all FA Cup fixtures →Given the identical expected‑goals rating and the model’s slight preference for a Northwich win, the home side’s recent ability to edge close games gives them the edge in this cup clash.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
