Odense vs AC Horsens: Under 2.5 goals
Odense host AC Horsens in a tight Superliga clash where both sides average just one expected goal. The model’s 67.7% chance of under 2.5 goals signals a low‑scoring affair.
Both clubs arrive with modest recent form – Odense have slipped to a single win in five, while Horsens have managed only a draw and two defeats. With neither side firing on all cylinders, the match is poised to be a pragmatic test of defensive organization.
Lars's Verdict
With the model assigning a 67.7% probability to under 2.5 goals, the statistical outlook favours a tight, low‑scoring encounter.
Show the maths
With Odense averaging 1.0 expected goals and AC Horsens averaging 1.0, the model gives a 60.0% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 40.0% it gives to both teams scoring.
Show the maths
Combined expected goals of 2.0 (Odense 1.0 + AC Horsens 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 67.7% chance against 32.3% for Over.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Odense at 34.6%, the draw at 30.9%, and AC Horsens at 34.6% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-0 at 13.5% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Odense
Odense’s last five league results read L 2‑3 vs Silkeborg (H), D 2‑2 vs Randers FC (A), L 0‑1 vs Vejle (H), L 0‑1 vs Viborg (A), W 1‑0 vs Sonderjyske (H). The recent 1‑0 win shows they can secure a clean sheet, but the four preceding games all involved conceding, suggesting an uneven defensive record that supports a low‑scoring outlook.
AC Horsens
AC Horsens have recorded D 1‑1 vs FC Nordsjælland (H), L 1‑2 vs FC Midtjylland (A), and L 0‑2 vs Brøndby (H). Across these three fixtures they have managed only two goals while conceding five, underscoring a limited attack and a porous defence that aligns with an under 2.5 goals scenario.
Head-to-Head
The recent head‑to‑head shows tight scores – a 2‑2 draw in May 2025 and a 1‑0 win for Odense in March 2025 – reinforcing the tendency toward low totals, which backs the under 2.5 goals pick.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 9 May 2025 | AC Horsens 2-2 Odense | 1. Division |
| 30 Mar 2025 | Odense 1-0 AC Horsens | 1. Division |
| 9 Nov 2024 | Odense 3-2 AC Horsens | 1. Division |
| 14 Sep 2024 | AC Horsens 2-2 Odense | 1. Division |
| 26 May 2023 | Odense 2-1 AC Horsens | Superliga |
Team News (Pregame)
Odense: J. Grot (Injury), W. Martin (Injury), V. Myhra (Red Card)
AC Horsens: C. Vestergaard (Knee Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Odense vs AC Horsens?
AC Horsens won 2-1. Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals.
What was the final score of Odense vs AC Horsens?
Odense 1-2 AC Horsens (full time).
When was Odense vs AC Horsens?
Odense played AC Horsens on Sun 16 Aug · 13:00 BST in the Danish Superliga at Nature Energy Park.
More Danish Superliga This Week
See all Danish Superliga fixtures →The combination of identical expected‑goal figures, modest scoring records and a history of low‑scoring outcomes points toward a match with few chances on target.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
