OFI vs Asteras Tripolis: OFI to win
OF5’s 2.0 expected goals versus Asteras’ 1.0 set a clear edge. The model rates OFI’s win probability at 60.5 %, the strongest signal among the available markets.
Both sides come into the fixture with contrasting recent form – OFI have bounced back from a loss to string together three wins, while Asteras Tripolis have collected just four points from five games. The disparity in defensive records – OFI conceding none at home and Asteras allowing three per away game – adds a concrete dimension to the clash.
Lars's Verdict
The model assigns a 60.5 % probability to an OFI victory, driven by their superior expected goals and defensive record.
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With OFI averaging 2.0 expected goals and Asteras Tripolis averaging 1.0, the model gives a 54.6% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.4% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.0 (OFI 2.0 + Asteras Tripolis 1.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 57.7% chance against 42.3% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has OFI at 60.5%, the draw at 21.2%, and Asteras Tripolis at 18.3% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 10.0% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
OFI
OFI’s recent run (WLWW) includes a 2‑0 win over Volos NFC at home and a 1‑0 win away at Olympiakos Piraeus. Both victories were achieved without conceding, underscoring a defensive solidity that supports a clean‑sheet result in this fixture.
Asteras Tripolis
Asteras Tripolis’ last five games (WLLLD) feature a 2‑1 away win over Panetolikos and a 1‑1 home draw with AEK Athens FC. The win shows they can score, but the three subsequent defeats, including a 0‑2 loss at home to Iraklis, highlight a fragile defence that makes conceding a goal likely.
Head-to-Head
In the five most recent meetings, OFI have won two (4‑0 and 2‑0) while Asteras Tripolis have won three, with the latest 3‑0 away win for Asteras. The head‑to‑head split is close, but OFI’s recent defensive record tilts the balance toward a home win.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 11 Jan 2026 | OFI 4-0 Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 |
| 7 Jan 2026 | OFI 2-0 Asteras Tripolis | Cup |
| 3 Nov 2025 | Asteras Tripolis 3-0 OFI | Super League 1 |
| 26 Apr 2025 | OFI 0-2 Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 |
| 13 Apr 2025 | Asteras Tripolis 2-1 OFI | Super League 1 |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won OFI vs Asteras Tripolis?
OFI and Asteras Tripolis drew 2-2. Our pre-match pick was OFI to win.
What was the final score of OFI vs Asteras Tripolis?
OFI 2-2 Asteras Tripolis (full time).
When was OFI vs Asteras Tripolis?
OFI played Asteras Tripolis on Sun 20 Sep · 17:00 BST in the Super League Greece at Theodoros Vardinogiannis Stadium.
More Super League Greece This Week
See all Super League Greece fixtures →With the numbers pointing to a dominant OFI performance, the most logical single‑bet is the match result in favour of the home side.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
