OFI vs CSKA Sofia preview by Robbo for TerraceBet

Europa League · Play-offs FT · OFI 3-0 CSKA Sofia Pankritio Stadium

OFI vs CSKA Sofia: CSKA Sofia to win

CSKA Sofia enter this Europa League opener with a higher expected goal output and a clear edge in the model’s win probability. Their recent away form and superior xG suggest they should dictate the match.

Robbo — Lead Predictions Writer, Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups

Stats-first, no filler, model-backed picks

Robbo's Take

Headline Pick

CSKA Sofia to win Won

Strong · Higher xG

Both Teams to Score

BTTS — Yes Lost

60.5% model probability

Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Won

58.8% model probability

OFI host CSKA Sofia in the first qualifying round, a clash that pits a defensively thin Greek side against a Bulgarian outfit that has been scoring on the road. With both teams eager to start their European campaigns, the fixture offers a chance to gauge early-season sharpness.

Robbo's Verdict

Strong

CSKA Sofia to win Won Slight lean Strong · Higher xG

CSKA Sofia’s higher expected goals and superior away scoring record give them the advantage, aligning with the model’s strongest win probability.

Show the maths

The model assigns CSKA Sofia a 45.8% chance to win versus OFI’s 30.6%, a gap of 15.2 percentage points. This spread stems from CSKA’s 1.7 expected goals compared with OFI’s 1.35, indicating a clearer attacking edge. Their away goals‑for average of 1.7 against a defensive 0.3 further widens the probability margin, leading the model to favor a CSKA victory.

Pick 2 · Both Teams to Score

Both Teams to Score — Yes Lost 60.5% model probability

With OFI averaging 1.35 expected goals and CSKA Sofia averaging 1.7, the model gives a 60.5% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 39.5% it gives to at least one side being kept out.

Show the maths

BTTS probability is derived from each side's expected goals (OFI 1.35, CSKA Sofia 1.7) run through the same Poisson goal-expectancy model used for the match result: 60.5% of simulated outcomes have both teams scoring at least once, versus 39.5% where at least one side is shut out.

Pick 3 · Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Won 58.8% model probability

Combined expected goals of 3.0 (OFI 1.35 + CSKA Sofia 1.7) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 58.8% chance against 41.2% for Under.

Show the maths

Total goals probability comes from the same Poisson model summing both teams' expected goals (OFI 1.35 + CSKA Sofia 1.7 = 3.0 combined): 58.8% of simulated outcomes finish with 3 or more goals, versus 41.2% finishing with 2 or fewer.

Match Result Model

Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has OFI at 30.6%, the draw at 23.7%, and CSKA Sofia at 45.8% to win.

Most Likely Scoreline

The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 10.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.

The Numbers Behind the Headline

OFI expected goals

1.35

CSKA Sofia expected goals

1.7

Model BTTS probability

60.5%

Most likely scorelines

11-1

10.9%

21-2

9.2%

30-1

8.1%

Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.

Team News (Pregame)

No notable injury concerns were on record for either side heading into this match.

Talking Points · Deano

Grab your CSKA Sofia tickets now

3 talking points · 1 min read →

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won OFI vs CSKA Sofia?

OFI won 3-0. Our pre-match pick was CSKA Sofia to win.

What was the final score of OFI vs CSKA Sofia?

OFI 3-0 CSKA Sofia (full time).

When was OFI vs CSKA Sofia?

OFI played CSKA Sofia on Thu 20 Aug · 18:00 BST in the Europa League at Pankritio Stadium.

More Europa League This Week

See all Europa League fixtures →

These metrics line up with the model’s 45.8% win probability for CSKA Sofia, making them the clear favorite for the result.

Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org

Written by Robbo

Lead Predictions Writer, TerraceBet — Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups