Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI: Olympiakos Draw No Bet
Olympiakos host OFI in a game where both sides sit on an expected 1.0 goal per match. The model’s win‑draw‑loss split shows Olympiakos slightly ahead when the draw is removed.
Both clubs arrive with recent runs of points – Olympiakos with two wins and a draw, OFI with two wins and a loss – setting up a tightly contested clash in the Super League Greece.
Lars's Verdict
Removing the draw leaves Olympiakos with a combined 65.5% chance of either winning or drawing, compared with OFI’s solitary 34.6% chance of victory.
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With Olympiakos Piraeus averaging 1.0 expected goals and OFI averaging 1.0, the model gives a 60.0% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 40.0% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.0 (Olympiakos Piraeus 1.0 + OFI 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 67.7% chance against 32.3% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Olympiakos Piraeus at 34.6%, the draw at 30.9%, and OFI at 34.6% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-0 at 13.5% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Olympiakos Piraeus
Olympiakos’ last five league results are W, W, D, with a 1‑0 win over Atromitos at home and a 1‑0 win away at Asteras Tripolis, followed by a 1‑1 draw at Volos. The two clean‑sheet victories demonstrate a tight defence, reinforcing the confidence in a draw‑no‑bet pick for Olympiakos.
OFI
OFI’s recent form shows two wins – a 3‑1 home win over Volos and a 2‑0 home win over the same side – then a 1‑2 away loss to Aris. The loss on the road, where they concede two goals, highlights vulnerability that supports backing Olympiakos on a draw‑no‑bet.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings Olympiakos has won every game, with scores of 3‑0 (twice), 3‑0, 2‑0 and 3‑0, the most recent being a 3‑0 win on 14 March, confirming a clear historical edge.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 14 Mar 2026 | OFI 0-3 Olympiakos Piraeus | Super League 1 |
| 3 Jan 2026 | Olympiakos Piraeus 3-0 OFI | Super Cup |
| 6 Dec 2025 | Olympiakos Piraeus 3-0 OFI | Super League 1 |
| 17 May 2025 | OFI 0-2 Olympiakos Piraeus | Cup |
| 9 Mar 2025 | Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 OFI | Super League 1 |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI?
OFI won 1-0. Our pre-match pick was Olympiakos Draw No Bet.
What was the final score of Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI?
Olympiakos Piraeus 0-1 OFI (full time).
When was Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI?
Olympiakos Piraeus played OFI on Sat 12 Sep · 17:00 BST in the Super League Greece at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium.
More Super League Greece This Week
See all Super League Greece fixtures →Given the defensive solidity at home and the historic dominance, the model favours backing Olympiakos when the draw is excluded.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
