Osasuna vs Levante: No clear edge
Osasuna host Levante in a La Liga clash where both sides have identical expected goals of 1.35 and the model sees a perfectly balanced win probability of 37.1% for each team.
Both clubs come into the fixture on opposite streaks – Osasuna have lost five straight, while Levante have won two of their last five – setting up a test of resilience after a run of contrasting results.
Robbo's Verdict
The model’s probabilities are evenly split – 37.1% for either side and 25.8% for a draw – providing no statistically dominant selection.
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With Osasuna averaging 1.35 expected goals and Levante averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Osasuna 1.35 + Levante 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Osasuna at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Levante at 37.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Osasuna
Osasuna have been unable to break their losing streak, dropping five straight matches. Notably, they fell 1‑2 to Barcelona at home and 1‑2 to Atletico Madrid at home, both games where they scored once but still lost, underscoring a lack of cutting edge that weakens any win expectation here.
Levante
Levante’s recent form includes a 3‑2 away win over Celta Vigo and a 2‑0 home win against Mallorca, showing they can find the net, but they then suffered a 1‑2 loss at Real Betis and a 0‑3 defeat at Espanyol, indicating defensive frailties that could limit a clean sheet in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Levante have edged Osasuna with a 3‑2 win in May 2026, while Osasuna have also secured a 2‑0 victory in December 2025, resulting in a balanced head‑to‑head record that offers no clear directional bias.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 8 May 2026 | Levante 3-2 Osasuna | La Liga |
| 8 Dec 2025 | Osasuna 2-0 Levante | La Liga |
| 19 Mar 2022 | Osasuna 3-1 Levante | La Liga |
| 5 Dec 2021 | Levante 0-0 Osasuna | La Liga |
| 14 Feb 2021 | Levante 0-1 Osasuna | La Liga |
Team News (Pregame)
Osasuna: No notable injury concerns on record.
Levante: R. Brugue (Red Card), A. Primo (Shoulder Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Osasuna vs Levante?
Osasuna and Levante drew 0-0. Our pre-match pick was No clear edge.
What was the final score of Osasuna vs Levante?
Osasuna 0-0 Levante (full time).
When was Osasuna vs Levante?
Osasuna played Levante on Mon 24 Aug · 18:30 BST in the La Liga at Estadio El Sadar.
More La Liga This Week
See all La Liga fixtures →Given the identical xG figures and the lack of a decisive probability swing in any market, the model does not highlight a single standout outcome for this encounter.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
