Pagham vs Hanworth Villa preview by Robbo for TerraceBet

FA Cup · 2nd Round Qualifying FT · Pagham 0-6 Hanworth Villa TBC

Pagham vs Hanworth Villa: Pagham Draw No Bet

Pagham's 2.0 expected goals dwarf Hanworth Villa's 1.35, and the model rates a 52.5% chance of a home win. The over‑2.5 goal market is heavily favoured, but the safer angle lies in a Pagham draw‑no‑bet.

Robbo — Lead Predictions Writer, Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups

Stats-first, no filler, model-backed picks

Robbo's Take

Headline Pick

Pagham Draw No Bet Lost

Solid · Home advantage

Both Teams to Score

BTTS — Yes Lost

64.0% model probability

Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Won

65.0% model probability

The FA Cup tie pits a high‑scoring Pagham side against a defensively thin Hanworth Villa. With both clubs coming off contrasting form spells, the fixture promises plenty of action in the opening stages.

Robbo's Verdict

Solid

Pagham Draw No Bet Lost Solid · Home advantage

Back Pagham on a draw‑no‑bet basis, leveraging their 52.5% win probability and the relatively high 21.7% chance of a draw to protect against a narrow upset.

Show the maths

The model assigns Pagham a 52.5% chance to win based on their 2.0 expected goals versus Villa's 1.35. Adding the 21.7% draw probability gives a combined 74.2% chance that Pagham either wins or draws. By selecting a draw‑no‑bet, the bet is successful if Pagham avoids a loss, which the model predicts will happen roughly three‑quarters of the time.

Pick 2 · Both Teams to Score

Both Teams to Score — Yes Lost 64.0% model probability

With Pagham averaging 2.0 expected goals and Hanworth Villa averaging 1.35, the model gives a 64.0% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 36.0% it gives to at least one side being kept out.

Show the maths

BTTS probability is derived from each side's expected goals (Pagham 2.0, Hanworth Villa 1.35) run through the same Poisson goal-expectancy model used for the match result: 64.0% of simulated outcomes have both teams scoring at least once, versus 36.0% where at least one side is shut out.

Pick 3 · Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Won 65.0% model probability

Combined expected goals of 3.4 (Pagham 2.0 + Hanworth Villa 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 65.0% chance against 35.0% for Under.

Show the maths

Total goals probability comes from the same Poisson model summing both teams' expected goals (Pagham 2.0 + Hanworth Villa 1.35 = 3.4 combined): 65.0% of simulated outcomes finish with 3 or more goals, versus 35.0% finishing with 2 or fewer.

Match Result Model

Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Pagham at 52.5%, the draw at 21.7%, and Hanworth Villa at 25.8% to win.

Most Likely Scoreline

The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 9.5% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.

The Numbers Behind the Headline

Pagham expected goals

2.0

Hanworth Villa expected goals

1.35

Model BTTS probability

64.0%

Most likely scorelines

11-1

9.5%

22-1

9.5%

31-0

7.0%

Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.

Form Guide — Last 5

Pagham

LLLDW

Pagham's recent run of L‑L‑L‑D‑W includes a 2‑0 win over Ascot United at home (H) after three successive defeats, showing they can bounce back when needed. The earlier 1‑1 draw away at Ascot United (A) also hints at resilience, suggesting they can at least hold a draw in this cup tie.

Hanworth Villa

Hanworth Villa have only one recorded league result—a 4‑1 home victory over Whitstable Town (H)—demonstrating they can dominate weaker opposition but have no recent away form to gauge, underscoring their vulnerability on the road.

Team News (Pregame)

No notable injury concerns were on record for either side heading into this match.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won Pagham vs Hanworth Villa?

Hanworth Villa won 6-0. Our pre-match pick was Pagham Draw No Bet.

What was the final score of Pagham vs Hanworth Villa?

Pagham 0-6 Hanworth Villa (full time).

When was Pagham vs Hanworth Villa?

Pagham played Hanworth Villa on Sat 19 Sep · 15:00 BST in the FA Cup at TBC.

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Given Pagham’s clear edge but also the 21.7% draw probability, a draw‑no‑bet on Pagham shields against a potential stalemate while still capitalising on their superiority.

Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org

Written by Robbo

Lead Predictions Writer, TerraceBet — Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups