Palmeiras vs Internacional: Palmeiras to win
Palmeiras boast a 1.7 xG average at home while Internacional limp with just 1.0 xG away. Our model puts Palmeiras’ win chance at 53.8 % versus the market‑ implied 16 % for Internacional.
Palmeiras head into the clash after a dominant run, scoring in every of their last five league outings. Internacional, meanwhile, have failed to win in four straight league games, a slump that makes a win for the visitors unlikely.
Bez's Verdict
The model assigns Palmeiras a 53.8 % win probability, far above the market’s 16 % implied chance for Internacional, delivering clear value on a home victory.
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With Palmeiras averaging 1.7 expected goals and Internacional averaging 1.0, the model gives a 51.7% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 48.3% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Palmeiras 1.7 + Internacional 1.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Palmeiras at 53.8%, the draw at 24.0%, and Internacional at 22.2% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 11.4% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Palmeiras
Palmeiras have won four of their last five league games (WWWLW), including a 3‑0 away thrashing of Flamengo and a 4‑0 away victory over Vitoria. Those dominant displays, especially the recent 4‑0 win, demonstrate a potent attack that should translate into another home win here.
Internacional
Internacional have slipped to four defeats and a draw in their last five (LLLLD), most recently a 1‑1 home draw with Flamengo after a string of 0‑2 and 1‑2 losses away. The inability to secure a win in any of those matches signals a low chance of turning the tide against Palmeiras.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Palmeiras have won three, including a 3‑1 win on 13 Feb 2026, while Internacional have only managed one draw, indicating a clear head‑to‑head advantage for Palmeiras.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 13 Feb 2026 | Internacional 1-3 Palmeiras | Serie A |
| 13 Sep 2025 | Palmeiras 4-1 Internacional | Serie A |
| 16 Apr 2025 | Internacional 0-1 Palmeiras | Serie A |
| 4 Aug 2024 | Internacional 1-1 Palmeiras | Serie A |
| 17 Apr 2024 | Palmeiras 0-1 Internacional | Serie A |
Team News (Pregame)
Palmeiras: Bruno Fuchs (Surgery), G. Gomez (Muscle Injury), Jefte (Knee Injury), Khellven (Muscle Injury)
Internacional: B. Arhin (Hamstring Injury), Joao Victor (Muscle Injury), Kayky (Ankle Injury), S. Rochet (Lower Back Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Palmeiras vs Internacional?
Palmeiras and Internacional drew 0-0. Our pre-match pick was Palmeiras to win.
What was the final score of Palmeiras vs Internacional?
Palmeiras 0-0 Internacional (full time).
When was Palmeiras vs Internacional?
Palmeiras played Internacional on Sun 9 Aug · 20:00 BST in the Brasileirão at Nubank Parque.
More Brasileirão This Week
See all Brasileirão fixtures →All the numbers point to Palmeiras controlling the game and finding the net, making a home win the most logical bet.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
