Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama: Palmeiras to win
Palmeiras enter the fixture with a 1.5 xG average at home, while Vasco struggle to score away at 1.0 xG. The model gives Palmeiras a 48.8% chance of victory versus a 25.2% chance for the visitors.
Both sides arrive on contrasting recent form – Palmeiras have been erratic, splitting wins and losses, whereas Vasco have barely collected points in their last four outings. The match pits Palmeiras' solid home defence (0.7 goals conceded per game) against a Vasco side that leaks 1.7 goals on the road.
Bez's Verdict
The model assigns Palmeiras a 48.8% win probability, double the 25.2% chance for Vasco, driven by higher expected goals and a tighter home defence.
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With Palmeiras averaging 1.5 expected goals and Vasco DA Gama averaging 1.0, the model gives a 50.9% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 49.1% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.5 (Palmeiras 1.5 + Vasco DA Gama 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 54.4% chance against 45.6% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Palmeiras at 48.8%, the draw at 26.0%, and Vasco DA Gama at 25.2% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 12.3% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Palmeiras
Palmeiras’ last five league results (WLWDL) include a 3-1 away win over Coritiba and a 4-0 away victory against Vitoria, showing they can score heavily when in form. However, a 1-2 home loss to Atletico‑MG and a 2-3 away defeat to Fluminense illustrate vulnerability, meaning their recent inconsistency still supports a win but not a dominant one.
Vasco DA Gama
Vasco’s recent run (LDDL) features a 0-3 home loss to Santos and a 0-1 away defeat at Vitoria, highlighting both offensive struggles and defensive frailties. The only positive result, a 1-1 home draw with Mirassol, did not break the trend, reinforcing the expectation of a tough outing for Vasco.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Palmeiras have won three, most recently a 3-0 home thrashing in October 2025, while Vasco’s lone recent victory was a 2-1 win in March 2026, underscoring Palmeiras’ historic superiority.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 12 Mar 2026 | Vasco DA Gama 2-1 Palmeiras | Serie A |
| 1 Oct 2025 | Palmeiras 3-0 Vasco DA Gama | Serie A |
| 4 May 2025 | Vasco DA Gama 0-1 Palmeiras | Serie A |
| 22 Sep 2024 | Vasco DA Gama 0-1 Palmeiras | Serie A |
| 14 Jun 2024 | Palmeiras 2-0 Vasco DA Gama | Serie A |
Team News (Pregame)
Palmeiras: Jefte (Knee Injury), Khellven (Muscle Injury), Paulinho (Muscle Injury), Bruno Fuchs (Surgery)
Vasco DA Gama: Brenner (Injury), Cuiabano (Yellow Cards), Mateus Carvalho (Knee Injury), N. Moreira (Yellow Cards)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama?
Palmeiras won 4-1. Our pre-match pick was Palmeiras to win.
What was the final score of Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama?
Palmeiras 4-1 Vasco DA Gama (full time).
When was Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama?
Palmeiras played Vasco DA Gama on Sun 23 Aug · 20:00 BST in the Brasileirão at Nubank Parque.
More Brasileirão This Week
See all Brasileirão fixtures →Given the xG gap, the defensive solidity at Palmeiras’ venue and the recent form disparity, the model leans heavily toward a Palmeiras win.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
