PAOK vs Anderlecht: PAOK to win
PAOK head into the Europa League opener with a 2.0 expected‑goals tally against Anderlecht’s 1.0, and the model backs them at 60.5% to claim all three points.
Both clubs arrive from contrasting domestic runs – PAOK riding a pair of wins and Anderlecht sitting on a draw and a win – making the Greek side the clear aggressor in Thessaloniki.
Robbo's Verdict
The model assigns PAOK a 60.5% chance of victory, underpinned by their superior expected goals and defensive record.
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With PAOK averaging 2.0 expected goals and Anderlecht averaging 1.0, the model gives a 54.6% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.4% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.0 (PAOK 2.0 + Anderlecht 1.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 57.7% chance against 42.3% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has PAOK at 60.5%, the draw at 21.2%, and Anderlecht at 18.3% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 10.0% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
PAOK
PAOK’s last five league outings include a 3‑2 away win over Dynamo Kyiv and a 2‑0 home victory over the same side, demonstrating both scoring potency and defensive solidity. Those two wins underpin the model’s confidence in PAOK’s ability to secure three points here.
Anderlecht
Anderlecht’s recent form shows a 1‑1 draw away at Hammarby followed by a 3‑1 home win over the Swedish club, indicating they can find the net but also leak goals. This mixed form tempers their chances against a defensively tight PAOK side.
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won PAOK vs Anderlecht?
Anderlecht won 1-0. Our pre-match pick was PAOK to win.
What was the final score of PAOK vs Anderlecht?
PAOK 0-1 Anderlecht (full time).
When was PAOK vs Anderlecht?
PAOK played Anderlecht on Thu 6 Aug · 18:45 BST in the Europa League at Toumba Stadium.
More Europa League This Week
See all Europa League fixtures →With a clear xG advantage and a solid win probability, the home side should dominate the encounter.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
