PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis: PAOK to win
PAOK enter the match with a 78.5% win probability against Aris, backed by a 4.0 expected‑goals rating versus Aris' 1.5. The model also flags a high chance of multiple goals, but the decisive edge lies in PAOK’s superior scoring rate.
Both teams arrive in contrasting form: PAOK have collected two wins and a loss in their last three league outings, while Aris sit on four wins out of five, their only slip a 0‑5 defeat to AEK Athens. The clash pits PAOK’s home firepower against an Aris side that has struggled to keep clean sheets away.
Lars's Verdict
PAOK’s 4.0 expected goals at home versus Aris’ 1.5 away, combined with a 78.5% model win probability, makes a PAOK win the most credible outcome.
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With PAOK averaging 4.0 expected goals and Aris Thessalonikis averaging 1.5, the model gives a 74.6% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 25.4% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 5.5 (PAOK 4.0 + Aris Thessalonikis 1.5) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 89.0% chance against 11.0% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has PAOK at 78.5%, the draw at 10.2%, and Aris Thessalonikis at 9.2% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 3-1 at 6.5% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
PAOK
PAOK’s recent league run shows a win 4‑0 over Levadiakos at home, followed by a 2‑1 away win at Atromitos, before a 1‑3 loss at Panathinaikos. The two wins illustrate a potent attack that can produce multiple goals, while the loss highlights a rare defensive lapse, reinforcing that PAOK is still the stronger side for a win.
Aris Thessalonikis
Aris have won 2‑1 away at Volos NFC, 3‑0 at home versus Levadiakos, 3‑2 away at Kalamata, and 2‑1 at home against OFI before succumbing 0‑5 away to AEK Athens. Four victories demonstrate attacking consistency, but the heavy defeat exposes defensive frailty that undermines their chance of containing PAOK’s firepower.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, PAOK have a 3‑1 win (Dec 2025) and a 0‑1 loss (Sept 2024) against Aris, with two draws (0‑0 and 1‑1). The recent win and overall scoring edge support the PAOK win pick.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 8 Feb 2026 | Aris Thessalonikis 0-0 PAOK | Super League 1 |
| 7 Dec 2025 | PAOK 3-1 Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 |
| 3 Dec 2025 | Aris Thessalonikis 1-1 PAOK | Cup |
| 19 Jan 2025 | Aris Thessalonikis 0-0 PAOK | Super League 1 |
| 29 Sep 2024 | PAOK 0-1 Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 |
Team News
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis?
PAOK to win. PAOK’s 4.0 expected goals at home versus Aris’ 1.5 away, combined with a 78.5% model win probability, makes a PAOK win the most credible outcome.
What does the model give PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, gives PAOK a 78.5% chance, the draw 10.2%, and Aris Thessalonikis 9.2% to win.
When is PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis?
PAOK play Aris Thessalonikis on Sun 13 Sep · 19:00 BST in the Super League Greece at Toumba Stadium.
More Super League Greece This Week
See all Super League Greece fixtures →Given the clear gap in expected goals and the model’s win probability, the logical selection is a PAOK victory.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
