Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa: Piast Gliwice to win
Piast Gliwice boast a 3.5 expected‑goals mark at home versus Legia Warszawa’s 1.0 away. The model rates Piast’s win probability at 82.3%, the sharpest edge in this batch.
Both sides arrive on contrasting recent runs – Piast have been leaking at the back while still finding the net, and Legia have combined a solid defence with a modest scoring output on the road. This clash pits Piast’s high‑scoring home form against Legia’s disciplined away defence.
Lars's Verdict
The model assigns Piast an 82.3% chance of victory, driven by their 3.5 expected goals at home versus Legia’s 1.0 away.
Show the maths
With Piast Gliwice averaging 3.5 expected goals and Legia Warszawa averaging 1.0, the model gives a 60.7% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 39.3% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
Show the maths
Combined expected goals of 4.5 (Piast Gliwice 3.5 + Legia Warszawa 1.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 81.7% chance against 18.3% for Under.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Piast Gliwice at 82.3%, the draw at 10.1%, and Legia Warszawa at 6.7% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 3-0 at 7.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Piast Gliwice
Piast’s recent four‑game stretch includes a 0‑2 loss at Zaglebie Lubin (A) and a 4‑3 home win over Wisla Krakow, showing they can score heavily but also concede. The subsequent 0‑3 defeat at Lech Poznan (A) and a 3‑4 home loss to Wieczysta Kraków underline defensive frailties, meaning the team will rely on its firepower to secure the win.
Legia Warszawa
Legia’s last four outings feature a 1‑0 away win at Pogon Szczecin and a dominant 5‑0 home victory over Radomiak Radom, both clean sheets that highlight their defensive solidity. A 3‑1 home win against Zaglebie Lubin and a 1‑1 away draw with Korona Kielce show they can also score, but the low away expected goals (1.0) suggest limited firepower against Piast’s attack.
Head-to-Head
In the five most recent meetings, Piast have prevailed four times – 1‑0 (2025‑12‑14), 2‑0 (2025‑12‑06), 1‑0 (2025‑02‑08) and 2‑1 (2024‑08‑04) – with only one draw (0‑0 on 2025‑01‑18), underscoring a clear historical advantage for the home side.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 14 Dec 2025 | Legia Warszawa 0-1 Piast Gliwice | Ekstraklasa |
| 6 Dec 2025 | Piast Gliwice 2-0 Legia Warszawa | Ekstraklasa |
| 8 Feb 2025 | Piast Gliwice 1-0 Legia Warszawa | Ekstraklasa |
| 18 Jan 2025 | Piast Gliwice 0-0 Legia Warszawa | Friendlies Clubs |
| 4 Aug 2024 | Legia Warszawa 1-2 Piast Gliwice | Ekstraklasa |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa?
Legia Warszawa won 1-0. Our pre-match pick was Piast Gliwice to win.
What was the final score of Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa?
Piast Gliwice 0-1 Legia Warszawa (full time).
When was Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa?
Piast Gliwice played Legia Warszawa on Sat 22 Aug · 16:30 BST in the Ekstraklasa at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach.
More Ekstraklasa This Week
See all Ekstraklasa fixtures →Given the stark xG differential and the model’s 82.3% win rating for the hosts, Piast’s superiority is clear going into the match.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
