Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin: Both teams to score - Yes
Piast Gliwice's firepower (2.8 xG) meets Pogon Szczecin's solid defence (0.0 conceded away). The model gives a 59.2% chance both sides will find the net.
Both teams arrive with contrasting recent runs – Piast has turned a slump into back‑to‑back wins, while Pogon has hardly lost but struggled to score. The clash pits Piast's attacking surge against Pogon's defensive stability on the road.
Lars's Verdict
The model assigns a 59.2% probability to both sides scoring, driven by Piast's high expected goals and Pogon's ability to find the net even when away.
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With Piast Gliwice averaging 2.8 expected goals and Pogon Szczecin averaging 1.0, the model gives a 59.2% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 40.8% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.8 (Piast Gliwice 2.8 + Pogon Szczecin 1.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 72.9% chance against 27.1% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Piast Gliwice at 74.5%, the draw at 14.5%, and Pogon Szczecin at 10.7% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 2-0 at 8.8% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Piast Gliwice
Piast's recent five results (L L D W W) include a 2‑0 win at Motor Lublin and a 3‑0 victory over GKS Katowice, showing a sharp upturn in finishing. The earlier 3‑4 home loss to Wieczysta Kraków highlights occasional defensive lapses, but the back‑to‑back wins indicate a revived goal threat that favours both teams scoring.
Pogon Szczecin
Pogon's last five games (W D D D W) feature a 3‑1 home win over Motor Lublin and a 2‑0 home win versus Wieczysta Kraków, proving they can score in bursts. Their three consecutive draws (2‑2, 0‑0, 1‑1) demonstrate a tendency to keep games level, which aligns with both sides finding the net.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Piast lost 0‑2 on 13 April 2026 and won 2‑1 on 13 April 2025, giving each side a recent win; the other three matches were all Pogon victories. The mixed results, especially the 2‑1 Piast win, show both sides have scored, supporting the BTTS pick.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 13 Apr 2026 | Piast Gliwice 0-2 Pogon Szczecin | Ekstraklasa |
| 3 Oct 2025 | Pogon Szczecin 2-1 Piast Gliwice | Ekstraklasa |
| 13 Apr 2025 | Piast Gliwice 2-1 Pogon Szczecin | Ekstraklasa |
| 26 Feb 2025 | Pogon Szczecin 2-0 Piast Gliwice | Cup |
| 6 Oct 2024 | Pogon Szczecin 1-0 Piast Gliwice | Ekstraklasa |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin?
Pogon Szczecin won 2-1. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score - Yes.
What was the final score of Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin?
Piast Gliwice 1-2 Pogon Szczecin (full time).
When was Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin?
Piast Gliwice played Pogon Szczecin on Sun 20 Sep · 11:15 BST in the Ekstraklasa at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach.
More Ekstraklasa This Week
See all Ekstraklasa fixtures →Given Piast's potent attack and Pogon's modest but consistent scoring, both teams are poised to hit the net, making the BTTS market the cleanest read.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
