Plymouth Parkway vs Horsham: Horsham to win
Plymouth Parkway enter the FA Cup tie with a home expected‑goals tally of 1.35, while Horsham boast 3.0 away. The model gives Horsham a 70.4% chance of victory and a 80.5% probability of more than 2.5 goals.
Both clubs arrive on a strong recent run – Plymouth have back‑to‑back wins in their last two league outings, and Horsham sit on a perfect away record in the same span. In a knockout competition, form often translates into confidence, setting the stage for a decisive encounter at Home Park.
Robbo's Verdict
The model rates Horsham’s win probability at 70.4% driven by their 3.0 away expected goals versus Plymouth’s zero home output, making a victory the most probable outcome.
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With Plymouth Parkway averaging 1.35 expected goals and Horsham averaging 3.0, the model gives a 70.1% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 29.9% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 4.3 (Plymouth Parkway 1.35 + Horsham 3.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 80.5% chance against 19.5% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Plymouth Parkway at 14.3%, the draw at 14.9%, and Horsham at 70.4% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-2 at 7.8% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Plymouth Parkway
Plymouth’s recent form includes a 3‑1 win away at Gosport Borough and a 2‑0 away triumph over Frome Town, both clean‑sheet victories. Despite these away successes, their home goals‑for average remains at 0.0, indicating they have not scored at home this season – a factor that limits their threat in this tie.
Horsham
Horsham have continued their flawless away form with a 3‑0 win at Walton & Hersham, scoring three without reply. Their away goals‑for average of 3.0 and zero goals‑against reinforce a potent and defensively solid road performance, supporting the expectation of a strong showing here.
Team News
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win Plymouth Parkway vs Horsham?
Horsham to win. The model rates Horsham’s win probability at 70.4% driven by their 3.0 away expected goals versus Plymouth’s zero home output, making a victory the most probable outcome.
What does the model give Plymouth Parkway vs Horsham?
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, gives Plymouth Parkway a 14.3% chance, the draw 14.9%, and Horsham 70.4% to win.
When is Plymouth Parkway vs Horsham?
Plymouth Parkway play Horsham on Sat 3 Oct · 15:00 BST in the FA Cup at TBC.
More FA Cup This Week
See all FA Cup fixtures →Given the stark contrast in away firepower and the model’s 70.4% win probability for Horsham, the logical read points to the visitors edging the tie.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
