Pogon Szczecin vs Motor Lublin: Motor Lublin Draw No Bet
Motor Lublin arrive with a 2.0 expected‑goals per game edge over Pogon Szczecin’s 1.35, and the model rates Lublin’s win probability at 52.5 %. The clash also features a 64 % chance of both sides finding the net.
Both clubs head into the opening weekend of the Ekstraklasa with contrasting recent form – Lublin have faltered in three of their last five, while Szczecin have bounced back with two wins in five. The fixture pits Szczecin’s modest home attacking output against Lublin’s higher away scoring rate, setting up a clear statistical divide.
Lars's Verdict
The model puts Lublin’s win chance at 52.5 % and the draw at 21.7 %, meaning a draw‑no‑bet offers a solid edge over a plain win‑only market.
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With Pogon Szczecin averaging 1.35 expected goals and Motor Lublin averaging 2.0, the model gives a 64.0% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 36.0% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.4 (Pogon Szczecin 1.35 + Motor Lublin 2.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 65.0% chance against 35.0% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Pogon Szczecin at 25.8%, the draw at 21.7%, and Motor Lublin at 52.5% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 9.5% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Pogon Szczecin
Szczecin’s last five results read L‑W‑D‑L‑W, highlighted by a 1‑0 away win at Zaglebie Lubin and a 2‑0 away victory over Cracovia Krakow. Those wins demonstrate that when Szczecin finds the net, they can also defend cleanly, which tempers the risk of conceding multiple goals in this fixture.
Motor Lublin
Lublin’s recent form of W‑D‑L‑D‑L includes a 4‑0 away win over Wisla Plock and a 2‑2 away draw with Widzew Łódź. The heavy win shows Lublin can produce a high‑scoring output on the road, reinforcing the model’s over‑2.5‑goals and BTTS expectations.
Head-to-Head
In the last four meetings, Lublin have won twice – 2‑1 in February 2026 and 4‑2 in November 2024 – while Szczecin have taken the other two, including a 4‑1 win in July 2025. The split leans slightly toward Lublin, aligning with the model’s higher win probability for them.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Feb 2026 | Motor Lublin 2-1 Pogon Szczecin | Ekstraklasa |
| 26 Jul 2025 | Pogon Szczecin 4-1 Motor Lublin | Ekstraklasa |
| 14 May 2025 | Pogon Szczecin 3-0 Motor Lublin | Ekstraklasa |
| 2 Nov 2024 | Motor Lublin 4-2 Pogon Szczecin | Ekstraklasa |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Pogon Szczecin vs Motor Lublin?
Pogon Szczecin won 3-1. Our pre-match pick was Motor Lublin Draw No Bet.
What was the final score of Pogon Szczecin vs Motor Lublin?
Pogon Szczecin 3-1 Motor Lublin (full time).
When was Pogon Szczecin vs Motor Lublin?
Pogon Szczecin played Motor Lublin on Sat 8 Aug · 16:30 BST in the Ekstraklasa at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
More Ekstraklasa This Week
See all Ekstraklasa fixtures →Given Lublin’s superior expected goals and the model’s higher win probability, the safest route is to back their result while insulating against a draw.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
