Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Krakow: Wisla Krakow to win
Pogon Szczecin's 1.5 expected goals meet Wisla Krakow's 2.0 expected threat, while the model gives Wisla a 49.3% win chance versus 29.0% for the hosts.
Both sides arrive with contrasting recent form – Szczecin have turned a loss into two consecutive wins, whereas Wisla have alternated wins and defeats, suggesting a match where the away side's firepower could tip the balance.
Lars's Verdict
The model rates Wisla's win probability at 49.3% versus 29.0% for Szczecin, reflecting their higher expected goals and recent attacking form.
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With Pogon Szczecin averaging 1.5 expected goals and Wisla Krakow averaging 2.0, the model gives a 67.2% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 32.8% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.5 (Pogon Szczecin 1.5 + Wisla Krakow 2.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 67.9% chance against 32.1% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Pogon Szczecin at 29.0%, the draw at 21.6%, and Wisla Krakow at 49.3% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 9.1% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Pogon Szczecin
Szczecin's recent five-game stretch reads D‑L‑W‑W, highlighted by a 2‑0 away win over Cracovia and a 3‑1 home victory against Motor Lublin. Those two wins show they can score multiple goals, but the earlier defeat and draw underscore inconsistency, which weakens their case for a win here.
Wisla Krakow
Wisla's last five results are W‑L‑W‑L, including a 2‑1 home win over GKS Katowice and a 2‑1 home victory versus Wisla Plock. The alternating pattern shows they can find the net, yet the recent 1‑2 loss away at Gornik Zabrze reveals defensive vulnerability, reinforcing the expectation of a win but also a likely goal‑rich game.
Head-to-Head
In the five most recent meetings, Wisla have won twice (2024‑05‑02, 2021‑02‑19) and lost twice, with one 3‑3 draw in 2025, indicating a fairly even rivalry but with Wisla's recent win in 2024 supporting the pick.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct 2025 | Pogon Szczecin 3-3 Wisla Krakow | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2 May 2024 | Pogon Szczecin 1-2 Wisla Krakow | Cup |
| 18 Mar 2022 | Pogon Szczecin 4-1 Wisla Krakow | Ekstraklasa |
| 26 Sep 2021 | Wisla Krakow 0-1 Pogon Szczecin | Ekstraklasa |
| 19 Feb 2021 | Wisla Krakow 2-1 Pogon Szczecin | Ekstraklasa |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Krakow?
Pogon Szczecin and Wisla Krakow drew 2-2. Our pre-match pick was Wisla Krakow to win.
What was the final score of Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Krakow?
Pogon Szczecin 2-2 Wisla Krakow (full time).
When was Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Krakow?
Pogon Szczecin played Wisla Krakow on Sun 23 Aug · 19:15 BST in the Ekstraklasa at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
More Ekstraklasa This Week
See all Ekstraklasa fixtures →Given Wisla's superior expected goal output and the model's clear edge, the logical pick is a Wisla victory.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
