Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock: Both teams to score - Yes
Pogon Szczecin sit on a 1.7 xG home average against Wisla Plock's 1.0 xG on the road, and the model rates a 51.7% chance both sides will find the net.
Both clubs come into the encounter with divergent recent form – Szczecin have steadied after a loss, while Plock have slipped to a string of defeats – making the goal‑flow the key storyline.
Lars's Verdict
The model puts the BTTS probability at 51.7%, reflecting Szczecin's home scoring edge and Plock's ability to find the net even when conceding heavily.
Show the maths
With Pogon Szczecin averaging 1.7 expected goals and Wisla Plock averaging 1.0, the model gives a 51.7% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 48.3% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
Show the maths
Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Pogon Szczecin 1.7 + Wisla Plock 1.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Pogon Szczecin at 53.8%, the draw at 24.0%, and Wisla Plock at 22.2% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 11.4% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Pogon Szczecin
Szczecin's recent five-game run of L‑W‑W‑D‑D includes a 2‑0 away win at Cracovia and a 3‑1 home victory over Motor Lublin, showing they can score multiple goals when in form. Those results underpin the 1.7 xG home average and suggest they have the firepower to hit the net against Plock.
Wisla Plock
Plock's five-game slide of W‑D‑L‑L‑L features a 2‑1 away win at Raków and a 0‑0 home draw with Widzew Łódź, proving they can still score on the road despite defensive frailties. The 1.0 xG away figure reflects this capability, supporting the BTTS outlook.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, each side has recorded two wins and a draw, with the most recent 3‑0 triumph for Szczecin in May 2026 highlighting their scoring potential at home.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 3 May 2026 | Pogon Szczecin 3-0 Wisla Plock | Ekstraklasa |
| 3 Nov 2025 | Wisla Plock 2-0 Pogon Szczecin | Ekstraklasa |
| 26 Feb 2023 | Wisla Plock 0-1 Pogon Szczecin | Ekstraklasa |
| 13 Aug 2022 | Pogon Szczecin 2-2 Wisla Plock | Ekstraklasa |
| 8 Apr 2022 | Pogon Szczecin 1-2 Wisla Plock | Ekstraklasa |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock?
Pogon Szczecin and Wisla Plock drew 1-1. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score - Yes.
What was the final score of Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock?
Pogon Szczecin 1-1 Wisla Plock (full time).
When was Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock?
Pogon Szczecin played Wisla Plock on Mon 7 Sep · 19:30 BST in the Ekstraklasa at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
More Ekstraklasa This Week
See all Ekstraklasa fixtures →With both sides capable of scoring and the model’s BTTS probability just above the 50% line, the safest read is that each will breach the net.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
