Puebla vs Santos Laguna: Both teams to score - No
Puebla host Santos Laguna in a clash where both sides average just one goal per game. Our model gives a 60 % chance neither side will find the net, making a ‘Both teams to score – No’ the clearest edge.
Both clubs have struggled to convert chances lately – Puebla’s recent run reads loss‑win‑loss‑draw, while Santos Laguna have lost four straight. With each side scoring only about one goal per match on average, the defensive setups will dominate the narrative.
Jonesy's Verdict
With a 60 % model probability that only one side will hit the net, the BTTS‑No market offers the strongest statistical edge.
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With Puebla averaging 1.0 expected goals and Santos Laguna averaging 1.0, the model gives a 60.0% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 40.0% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.0 (Puebla 1.0 + Santos Laguna 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 67.7% chance against 32.3% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Puebla at 34.6%, the draw at 30.9%, and Santos Laguna at 34.6% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-0 at 13.5% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Puebla
Puebla’s last five league outings produced a loss to Queretaro (1‑2 at home), a win at Juarez (1‑0 away), another loss to Cruz Azul (1‑2 away) and a draw with Chivas (1‑1 at home). The mix of narrow defeats and a single‑goal win shows they can keep games tight, reinforcing the view that they may not concede a goal while also struggling to score more than once.
Santos Laguna
Santos Laguna have dropped four consecutive matches, including a 2‑3 loss at Monterrey and a 0‑1 defeat to Atlas at home. Their inability to find the net in three of those games, combined with conceding multiple goals, underlines the likelihood that they will be shut out in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Recent head‑to‑heads tilt toward Puebla, with a 1‑0 win in July 2025 and a 2‑1 loss in March 2026. The mixed outcomes, especially the low‑scoring 1‑0 result, support the expectation of a match where only one side scores.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 22 Mar 2026 | Santos Laguna 2-1 Puebla | Liga MX |
| 26 Jul 2025 | Puebla 1-0 Santos Laguna | Liga MX |
| 2 Feb 2025 | Santos Laguna 0-2 Puebla | Liga MX |
| 5 Jul 2024 | Puebla 1-0 Santos Laguna | Liga MX |
| 31 Jan 2024 | Santos Laguna 3-0 Puebla | Liga MX |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Puebla vs Santos Laguna?
Puebla won 3-2. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score - No.
What was the final score of Puebla vs Santos Laguna?
Puebla 3-2 Santos Laguna (full time).
When was Puebla vs Santos Laguna?
Puebla played Santos Laguna on Sun 23 Aug · 02:00 BST in the Liga MX at TBC.
More Liga MX This Week
See all Liga MX fixtures →Given the identical expected‑goals figure of 1.0 for each team and the defensive disparity, the odds tilt toward a match where at least one side fails to score.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
