Racing Santander vs Alaves: Racing Santander to win
Racing Santander's 2.5 xG at home dwarfs Alaves' 1.0 away xG, and the model gives the home side a 69.9% win chance. The numbers point to a clear home victory.
Both clubs have been busy this spell, but the contrast lies in the quality of chances they generate. Santander’s attacking output at home (2.5 goals per game) sits well above Alaves’ modest 1.0 away goal rate.
Robbo's Verdict
The home team’s superior expected goals and the model’s 69.9% win probability make a victory the most probable outcome.
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With Racing Santander averaging 2.5 expected goals and Alaves averaging 1.0, the model gives a 58.0% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 42.0% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.5 (Racing Santander 2.5 + Alaves 1.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 67.8% chance against 32.2% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Racing Santander at 69.9%, the draw at 16.8%, and Alaves at 13.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 2-0 at 9.4% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Racing Santander
In their last four league outings Santander drew 2‑2 with Villarreal at home, lost 0‑1 at Getafe, won 3‑2 against Elche at home and fell 2‑3 to Rayo Vallecano away. The mix of a win and three non‑wins shows they can score but are inconsistent, which supports a win probability that hinges on their high xG at home.
Alaves
Alaves have been steadier, beating Oviedo 1‑0 away, losing 1‑2 to Rayo Vallecano at home, thrashing Getafe 3‑0 at home, drawing 1‑1 away at Rayo Vallecano and winning 1‑0 at home versus Villarreal. Four points from five games underline a resilient defence but limited scoring, reinforcing the lower away xG figure.
Head-to-Head
The recent head‑to‑head record features three draws (1‑1, 0‑0, 1‑1) and two Alaves wins (2‑1 and 3‑0), indicating a tight contest but no clear dominance for the visitors.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 2026 | Racing Santander 1-1 Alaves | Friendlies Clubs |
| 17 Jul 2024 | Racing Santander 0-0 Alaves | Friendlies Clubs |
| 22 Jul 2023 | Racing Santander 1-2 Alaves | Friendlies Clubs |
| 21 Jan 2023 | Alaves 3-0 Racing Santander | Segunda División |
| 1 Nov 2022 | Racing Santander 1-1 Alaves | Segunda División |
Team News (Pregame)
Racing Santander: I. Luque (Inactive), A. Martin (Knee Injury), Pedro Felipe (Hamstring Injury), G. Guliashvili (Leg Injury)
Alaves: F. Garces (Suspended), M. Rodriguez (Ankle Injury), T. Martinez (Foot Injury), T. Mendes (Knee Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Racing Santander vs Alaves?
Racing Santander won 2-1. Our pre-match pick was Racing Santander to win.
What was the final score of Racing Santander vs Alaves?
Racing Santander 2-1 Alaves (full time).
When was Racing Santander vs Alaves?
Racing Santander played Alaves on Sat 12 Sep · 13:00 BST in the La Liga at Estadio El Sardinero.
More La Liga This Week
See all La Liga fixtures →With a strong xG advantage, a solid home record and the model’s near‑70% win probability, the logical read is a Santander victory.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
