Radomiak Radom vs Górnik Zabrze: Radomiak Radom to win
Radomiak Radom sit on a 2.0 xG home season while Górnik Zabrze manage just 1.35 xG away, and the model gives Radomiak a 52.5% chance to win versus a 21.7% draw probability.
Both sides have a handful of recent results on record – Radomiak’s last league win came 2‑1 at home over Wieczysta Kraków, while Górnik’s only listed recent fixture is a 2‑1 home victory against Śląsk Wrocław. The contrast between Radomiak’s solid home scoring and Górnik’s modest away output sets the stage for a decisive opening‑day clash.
Lars's Verdict
Radomiak’s 2.0 home xG and 52.5% win probability outweigh Górnik’s modest away threat, making a home victory the most probable outcome.
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With Radomiak Radom averaging 2.0 expected goals and Górnik Zabrze averaging 1.35, the model gives a 64.0% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 36.0% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.4 (Radomiak Radom 2.0 + Górnik Zabrze 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 65.0% chance against 35.0% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Radomiak Radom at 52.5%, the draw at 21.7%, and Górnik Zabrze at 25.8% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 9.5% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Radomiak Radom
Radomiak’s recent league form includes a 2‑1 home win over Wieczysta Kraków and a 1‑3 away loss to GKS Katowice. The win demonstrates their ability to find the net at home, while the loss shows they can be vulnerable on the road – a pattern that supports a home‑side advantage in this fixture.
Górnik Zabrze
Górnik’s only listed recent result is a 2‑1 home victory against Śląsk Wrocław, confirming they can score when playing at home but offering no evidence of away scoring prowess, which aligns with their zero away goals‑for average and suggests limited threat on the road.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Radomiak have won twice (4‑0 in Nov 2025 and 1‑0 in Sep 2024) and lost three times, most recently a 6‑2 defeat in May 2026, indicating a recent edge for Górnik but still a mixed record overall.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 23 May 2026 | Gornik Zabrze 6-2 Radomiak Radom | Ekstraklasa |
| 28 Nov 2025 | Radomiak Radom 4-0 Gornik Zabrze | Ekstraklasa |
| 15 Feb 2025 | Gornik Zabrze 3-2 Radomiak Radom | Ekstraklasa |
| 25 Sep 2024 | Gornik Zabrze 0-1 Radomiak Radom | Cup |
| 9 Aug 2024 | Radomiak Radom 1-2 Gornik Zabrze | Ekstraklasa |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Radomiak Radom vs Górnik Zabrze?
Górnik Zabrze won 3-1. Our pre-match pick was Radomiak Radom to win.
What was the final score of Radomiak Radom vs Górnik Zabrze?
Radomiak Radom 1-3 Górnik Zabrze (full time).
When was Radomiak Radom vs Górnik Zabrze?
Radomiak Radom played Górnik Zabrze on Sat 8 Aug · 13:45 BST in the Ekstraklasa at TBC.
More Ekstraklasa This Week
See all Ekstraklasa fixtures →With the draw priced too high and Radomiak’s home edge evident in the numbers, the logical read leans toward a home win.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
