Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin preview by Lars for TerraceBet

Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 5 FT · Radomiak Radom 0-0 Zaglebie Lubin TBC

Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin: Radomiak Radom to win

Radomiak Radom sit on a 1.5 expected‑goals edge over Zaglebie Lubin’s 1.0, and the model backs a 48.8% chance of a home win. Both sides have shaky defensive records, but the numbers tilt the odds toward the hosts.

Lars — European Football Writer, Continental European leagues from the Eredivisie to the Superliga

Stats-first, no filler, model-backed picks

Lars's Take

Headline Pick

Radomiak Radom to win Lost

Strong · Home edge

Both Teams to Score

BTTS — No Won

50.9% model probability

Total Goals

Under 2.5 Goals Won

54.4% model probability

Both teams come into the match with contrasting recent form – Radomiak have managed just one win in their last four league outings, while Zaglebie have collected two wins from three games. Their head‑to‑head record is split, with Zaglebie holding two narrow victories and Radomiak a 3‑1 win in 2025, setting up a tightly contested clash.

Lars's Verdict

Strong

Radomiak Radom to win Lost Solid lean Strong · Home edge

The model assigns a 48.8% win probability to Radomiak, the strongest single‑outcome likelihood among the markets.

Show the maths

Radomiak’s expected goals of 1.5 versus Zaglebie’s 1.0 creates a 0.5‑goal advantage for the hosts. The model converts this gap into a 48.8% win probability for Radomiak, compared with a 25.2% chance for Zaglebie and a 26.0% draw likelihood. The higher xG, combined with a better home defensive record (2.0 conceded versus Zaglebie’s 3.0 away), pushes the probability toward a home win.

Pick 2 · Both Teams to Score

Both Teams to Score — No (one side kept off the scoresheet) Won 50.9% model probability

With Radomiak Radom averaging 1.5 expected goals and Zaglebie Lubin averaging 1.0, the model gives a 50.9% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 49.1% it gives to both teams scoring.

Show the maths

BTTS probability is derived from each side's expected goals (Radomiak Radom 1.5, Zaglebie Lubin 1.0) run through the same Poisson goal-expectancy model used for the match result: 49.1% of simulated outcomes have both teams scoring at least once, versus 50.9% where at least one side is shut out.

Pick 3 · Total Goals

Under 2.5 Goals Won 54.4% model probability

Combined expected goals of 2.5 (Radomiak Radom 1.5 + Zaglebie Lubin 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 54.4% chance against 45.6% for Over.

Show the maths

Total goals probability comes from the same Poisson model summing both teams' expected goals (Radomiak Radom 1.5 + Zaglebie Lubin 1.0 = 2.5 combined): 45.6% of simulated outcomes finish with 3 or more goals, versus 54.4% finishing with 2 or fewer.

Match Result Model

Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Radomiak Radom at 48.8%, the draw at 26.0%, and Zaglebie Lubin at 25.2% to win.

Most Likely Scoreline

The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 12.3% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.

The Numbers Behind the Headline

Radomiak Radom expected goals

1.5

Zaglebie Lubin expected goals

1.0

Model BTTS probability

50.9%

Most likely scorelines

11-0

12.3%

21-1

12.3%

32-0

9.2%

Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.

Form Guide — Last 5

Radomiak Radom

WLLL

Radomiak’s recent league run includes a 2‑1 home win over Wieczysta Kraków and a heavy 0‑5 away loss to Legia Warszawa. The win shows they can find the net at home, while the drubbing highlights defensive frailties, reinforcing a scenario where they score but may also concede – fitting a home‑win probability rather than a clean‑sheet result.

Zaglebie Lubin

WLW

Zaglebie Lubin’s last three league games feature a 2‑0 home win against Piast Gliwice and a 1‑3 away loss to Legia Warszawa. The win demonstrates they can produce goals, yet the loss underlines defensive vulnerability, suggesting they are unlikely to keep Radomiak from scoring.

Head-to-Head

In the five recent meetings, Zaglebie have won 1‑0 on 2026‑04‑11 and 1‑0 on 2024‑09‑29, while Radomiak secured a 3‑1 victory on 2025‑10‑04. The split record offers no clear dominance, but the model still favours the home side.

Date	Result	Competition
11 Apr 2026	Zaglebie Lubin 1-0 Radomiak Radom	Ekstraklasa
4 Oct 2025	Radomiak Radom 3-1 Zaglebie Lubin	Ekstraklasa
25 Sep 2025	Radomiak Radom 0-2 Zaglebie Lubin	Cup
5 Apr 2025	Radomiak Radom 0-1 Zaglebie Lubin	Ekstraklasa
29 Sep 2024	Zaglebie Lubin 1-0 Radomiak Radom	Ekstraklasa

Team News (Pregame)

No notable injury concerns were on record for either side heading into this match.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin?

Radomiak Radom and Zaglebie Lubin drew 0-0. Our pre-match pick was Radomiak Radom to win.

What was the final score of Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin?

Radomiak Radom 0-0 Zaglebie Lubin (full time).

When was Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin?

Radomiak Radom played Zaglebie Lubin on Sun 23 Aug · 13:45 BST in the Ekstraklasa at TBC.

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Given the higher expected goal output and the home side’s marginally better defensive record, the model’s highest probability lies with a Radomiak victory.

Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org

Written by Lars

European Football Writer, TerraceBet — Continental European leagues from the Eredivisie to the Superliga