Randers FC vs Lyngby: Lyngby to win
Randers host Lyngby in a clash where the model rates Lyngby’s win probability at 60.5% versus a market price implying just 25.6%.
Both sides enter with contrasting recent form – Randers have struggled to convert home advantage into points, while Lyngby’s limited recent outings show a high‑scoring but defensively leaky side.
Lars's Verdict
Take Lyngby at 3.9, because the model assigns them a 60.5% chance of victory while the market only prices them at roughly a quarter of that probability.
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With Randers FC averaging 1.0 expected goals and Lyngby averaging 2.0, the model gives a 54.6% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.4% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.0 (Randers FC 1.0 + Lyngby 2.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 57.7% chance against 42.3% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Randers FC at 18.3%, the draw at 21.2%, and Lyngby at 60.5% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-1 at 10.0% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Randers FC
Randers’ last five league results read W‑D‑L‑D‑L. They opened the run with a 1‑0 home win over Vejle, then drew 2‑2 with Odense at home. Both matches show they can keep games tight but have failed to build momentum, which undermines confidence in a home win and supports the view that they are unlikely to stop Lyngby’s scoring threat.
Lyngby
Lyngby’s recent form consists of a 2‑3 away loss to Copenhagen and a 2‑2 home draw with Aarhus. The loss demonstrates they can find the net against strong opposition, while the draw shows they can also hold on when the game opens up, indicating they are capable of scoring and securing points on the road.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, the teams have drawn twice (0‑0 in Feb 2025 and 1‑1 in Oct 2024) and Lyngby have won once 2‑1 in May 2024, with Randers’ biggest win coming 6‑2 in March 2024. The mixed head‑to‑head record leans toward scoring rather than clean sheets, which aligns with the model’s high win rating for Lyngby.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 21 Feb 2025 | Lyngby 0-0 Randers FC | Superliga |
| 6 Oct 2024 | Randers FC 1-1 Lyngby | Superliga |
| 5 May 2024 | Lyngby 2-1 Randers FC | Superliga |
| 31 Mar 2024 | Randers FC 6-2 Lyngby | Superliga |
| 23 Feb 2024 | Randers FC 1-0 Lyngby | Superliga |
Team News (Pregame)
Randers FC: W. Caddy (Injury), P. Izzo (Transfer negotiations), L. Lissens (Injury), B. Orn (Injury)
Lyngby: O. Snorre (Knee Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Randers FC vs Lyngby?
Randers FC won 2-0. Our pre-match pick was Lyngby to win.
What was the final score of Randers FC vs Lyngby?
Randers FC 2-0 Lyngby (full time).
When was Randers FC vs Lyngby?
Randers FC played Lyngby on Sun 9 Aug · 15:00 BST in the Danish Superliga at Cepheus Park.
More Danish Superliga This Week
See all Danish Superliga fixtures →The disparity between the model’s 60.5% win rating for Lyngby and the 25.6% implied by the 3.9 odds points to a clear value opportunity.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
