Randers FC vs Odense: Randers to win
Randers FC boast a 1.3 expected‑goals mark against Odense’s 0.8, and the model rates a 48.3% chance of a home win. Both sides’ recent form and head‑to‑head history reinforce that edge.
Randers arrive on a five‑match run that yielded nine points – victories over Lyngby (2‑0), Aarhus (2‑1) and Brondby (3‑0) bookending two defeats. Odense, meanwhile, have scraped only two points from five, with a solitary draw against Lyngby and another versus Aarhus.
Lars's Verdict
The model assigns Randers a 48.3% win chance, the highest single‑outcome probability, backed by their higher expected goals and recent form.
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With Randers FC averaging 1.3 expected goals and Odense averaging 0.8, the model gives a 59.9% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 40.1% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.1 (Randers FC 1.3 + Odense 0.8) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 65.0% chance against 35.0% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Randers FC at 48.3%, the draw at 28.7%, and Odense at 23.0% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 15.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Randers FC
Randers’ last five league outings delivered wins over Lyngby (2‑0 at home) and Brondby (3‑0 away), plus a home victory versus Aarhus (2‑1). The two defeats – a 0‑4 loss to FC Copenhagen at home and a 0‑1 defeat at Midtjylland – show they can be vulnerable, but the three wins provide enough momentum to back a home win here.
Odense
Odense’s recent five results feature a 0‑1 loss at Silkeborg, a 1‑2 defeat to AC Horsens at home, and a heavy 0‑5 home loss to FC Copenhagen. Two draws – 2‑2 at Aarhus and 1‑1 at Lyngby – are the only points collected, indicating limited attacking output and reinforcing the odds against them scoring.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Randers have secured a 2‑2 draw and a 0‑0 stalemate, while Odense have won three times, including a 3‑1 victory in April 2026, underscoring Odense’s recent edge but not enough to overturn the home advantage.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 11 May 2026 | Randers FC 2-2 Odense | Superliga |
| 19 Apr 2026 | Odense 3-1 Randers FC | Superliga |
| 24 Nov 2025 | Randers FC 0-0 Odense | Superliga |
| 11 Aug 2025 | Odense 3-2 Randers FC | Superliga |
| 19 May 2024 | Odense 2-0 Randers FC | Superliga |
Team News
Randers FC: W. Caddy (Injury), A. Henriksson (Red Card), F. Lauenborg (Inactive), L. Lissens (Injury)
Odense: W. Martin (Injury), J. Niemiec (Inactive), A. Suhonen (Inactive), F. Arp (Inactive)
Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win Randers FC vs Odense?
Randers to win. The model assigns Randers a 48.3% win chance, the highest single‑outcome probability, backed by their higher expected goals and recent form.
What does the model give Randers FC vs Odense?
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, gives Randers FC a 48.3% chance, the draw 28.7%, and Odense 23.0% to win.
When is Randers FC vs Odense?
Randers FC play Odense on Sun 13 Sep · 15:00 BST in the Danish Superliga at Cepheus Park.
Are there any injury concerns for Randers FC vs Odense?
Randers FC: W. Caddy (Injury), A. Henriksson (Red Card), F. Lauenborg (Inactive), L. Lissens (Injury). Odense: W. Martin (Injury), J. Niemiec (Inactive), A. Suhonen (Inactive), F. Arp (Inactive). Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
More Danish Superliga This Week
See all Danish Superliga fixtures →Combining a superior xG outlook, a stronger recent points haul, and a head‑to‑head record that includes a recent 2‑2 draw and a 3‑1 loss for Odense, the model’s highest probability sits on a Randers victory.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
