RB Bragantino vs Bahia: Both teams to score - Yes
RB Bragantino host Bahia in a tightly balanced Brasileirão clash, with both sides averaging 1.4 expected goals. The model rates the chance of both sides finding the net at 56.8%, the clearest edge of the data set.
Both teams come into the fixture with contrasting recent runs – Bragantino have struggled to convert chances, while Bahia have turned two draws into consecutive wins. The match will test Bragantino's defensive solidity against Bahia’s improving attack.
Bez's Verdict
The model assigns a 56.8% chance to both sides scoring, outpacing the draw and win probabilities, making BTTS the most compelling selection.
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With RB Bragantino averaging 1.4 expected goals and Bahia averaging 1.4, the model gives a 56.8% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 43.2% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.8 (RB Bragantino 1.4 + Bahia 1.4) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 53.1% chance against 46.9% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has RB Bragantino at 37.4%, the draw at 25.3%, and Bahia at 37.4% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 11.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
RB Bragantino
Bragantino's last five league outings read D‑L‑D‑W‑L, with a 0‑0 draw at Coritiba and a 1‑0 win over Gremio showing they can keep a clean sheet, yet the recent 1‑2 loss at Sao Paulo underlines defensive lapses. This mixed form, especially the ability to shut out opponents, suggests they are capable of scoring while also likely to concede, supporting the BTTS pick.
Bahia
Bahia's recent run of D‑D‑D‑W‑W includes a 3‑3 draw at Chapecoense and a 3‑2 victory over Internacional, indicating they can both score and leak goals. The three consecutive draws, two of which were goalless, show resilience but also a propensity for open games, aligning with a both‑teams‑to‑score outcome.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Bahia have won three times, notably a 2‑0 victory on 18 March 2026, while Bragantino’s best result was a 2‑1 win in September 2024. The recent dominance by Bahia supports the expectation that both sides will find the net.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 18 Mar 2026 | Bahia 2-0 RB Bragantino | Serie A |
| 2 Nov 2025 | Bahia 2-1 RB Bragantino | Serie A |
| 12 Jun 2025 | RB Bragantino 0-3 Bahia | Serie A |
| 1 Sep 2024 | RB Bragantino 2-1 Bahia | Serie A |
| 12 May 2024 | Bahia 1-0 RB Bragantino | Serie A |
Team News (Pregame)
RB Bragantino: Davi Gomes (Knee Injury), Eduardo Sasha (Inactive), Vanderlan (Knee Injury), Fernando Santos (Illness)
Bahia: Everton Ribeiro (Inactive), Jean Lucas (Yellow Cards), Leo Vieira (Knee Injury), Ademir (Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won RB Bragantino vs Bahia?
Bahia won 3-2. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score - Yes.
What was the final score of RB Bragantino vs Bahia?
RB Bragantino 2-3 Bahia (full time).
When was RB Bragantino vs Bahia?
RB Bragantino played Bahia on Sat 5 Sep · 20:00 BST in the Brasileirão at TBC.
More Brasileirão This Week
See all Brasileirão fixtures →Given the identical expected‑goals figures and the BTTS probability topping 56%, the most logical read is that both teams will breach each other's nets.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
