RB Bragantino vs Mirassol: RB Bragantino to win
RB Bragantino's xG of 1.5 versus Mirassol's 0.9 gives the home side a clear edge, and the model rates a Bragantino win at 51.3%. The recent form and head‑to‑head record reinforce that advantage.
Both clubs enter the match with contrasting recent runs – Bragantino have managed a solitary win in five league games, while Mirassol have picked up two victories. The disparity in recent results sets up a test of Bragantino's home comfort against Mirassol's away resilience.
Bez's Verdict
The model's 51.3% win probability, backed by Bragantino's superior home xG and Mirassol's poorer away record, makes the home side the clear favorite.
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With RB Bragantino averaging 1.5 expected goals and Mirassol averaging 0.9, the model gives a 53.9% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 46.1% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.4 (RB Bragantino 1.5 + Mirassol 0.9) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 57.0% chance against 43.0% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has RB Bragantino at 51.3%, the draw at 26.1%, and Mirassol at 22.6% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 13.6% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
RB Bragantino
Bragantino's last five league outings read W 1‑0 vs Gremio (H), L 1‑2 vs Sao Paulo (A), L 2‑3 vs Bahia (H), D 1‑1 vs Botafogo (A) and L 1‑2 vs Flamengo (A). Three defeats and a single win highlight a fragile attack, which aligns with the modest 51.3% win rating – the team can win but must avoid the defensive lapses evident in those losses.
Mirassol
Mirassol's recent five results are D 1‑1 vs Palmeiras (H), L 0‑2 vs Flamengo (A), W 2‑1 vs Coritiba (A), D 2‑2 vs Vitoria (H) and W 2‑0 vs Botafogo (H). Two wins and two draws indicate they are hard to beat at home but struggle away, reinforcing the low 22.6% win chance for them in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Bragantino have one win, three draws and one loss (including a 1‑0 win on 5 April and a 2‑1 loss on 13 May). The prevalence of draws and the single win for Bragantino support a narrow home advantage rather than a dominant edge.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 13 May 2026 | Mirassol 2-1 RB Bragantino | Copa Do Brasil |
| 23 Apr 2026 | RB Bragantino 1-1 Mirassol | Copa Do Brasil |
| 5 Apr 2026 | Mirassol 0-1 RB Bragantino | Serie A |
| 21 Jan 2026 | Mirassol 0-0 RB Bragantino | Paulista - A1 |
| 1 Oct 2025 | Mirassol 1-1 RB Bragantino | Serie A |
Team News
RB Bragantino: Davi Gomes (Knee Injury), Tiago Volpi (Injury), Juninho Capixaba (Yellow Cards), Wallace Yan (Red Card)
Mirassol: Alesson (Yellow Cards), Jose Aldo (Muscle Injury), Negueba (Knee Injury), Denilson (Yellow Cards)
Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win RB Bragantino vs Mirassol?
RB Bragantino to win. The model's 51.3% win probability, backed by Bragantino's superior home xG and Mirassol's poorer away record, makes the home side the clear favorite.
What does the model give RB Bragantino vs Mirassol?
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, gives RB Bragantino a 51.3% chance, the draw 26.1%, and Mirassol 22.6% to win.
When is RB Bragantino vs Mirassol?
RB Bragantino play Mirassol on Wed 7 Oct · 23:30 BST in the Brasileirão at Estadio Cicero de Souza Marques.
Are there any injury concerns for RB Bragantino vs Mirassol?
RB Bragantino: Davi Gomes (Knee Injury), Tiago Volpi (Injury), Juninho Capixaba (Yellow Cards), Wallace Yan (Red Card). Mirassol: Alesson (Yellow Cards), Jose Aldo (Muscle Injury), Negueba (Knee Injury), Denilson (Yellow Cards). Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
More Brasileirão This Week
See all Brasileirão fixtures →All indicators point to the home team edging the contest, making a straightforward win the most defensible selection.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
