RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV: RB Leipzig to win
RB Leipzig average 3.0 xG at home against Hamburger SV's 1.35 away xG. The model backs Leipzig to win with a 70.4% probability.
Leipzig head into the fixture with a home scoring rate of three goals per game, while Hamburg have yet to find the net on the road this season. Both sides' recent results underline a stark contrast in form.
Robbo's Verdict
With a 70.4% model probability and a home xG of 3.0 versus Hamburg’s away xG of 1.35, Leipzig are the clear favorites.
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With RB Leipzig averaging 3.0 expected goals and Hamburger SV averaging 1.35, the model gives a 70.1% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 29.9% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 4.3 (RB Leipzig 3.0 + Hamburger SV 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 80.5% chance against 19.5% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has RB Leipzig at 70.4%, the draw at 14.9%, and Hamburger SV at 14.3% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 2-1 at 7.8% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
RB Leipzig
Leipzig’s recent form includes a 1‑4 loss at SC Freiburg, a 3‑0 home victory over Borussia Mönchengladbach, and a 1‑3 defeat at Werder Bremen. The 3‑0 win demonstrates their ability to dominate at home, which supports a win prediction despite the surrounding defeats.
Hamburger SV
Hamburg’s recent matches feature a 3‑2 home win over SC Freiburg, a 1‑1 draw at Bayer Leverkusen, followed by 0‑2 and 0‑5 losses to Borussia Dortmund and FSV Mainz 05 away. The two clean-sheet defeats underline their struggle to score on the road, bolstering the case for a Leipzig win.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings Leipzig have won four, most recently 2‑1 on 2026-03-01, reinforcing the advantage Leipzig holds over Hamburg.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Mar 2026 | Hamburger SV 1-2 RB Leipzig | Bundesliga |
| 18 Oct 2025 | RB Leipzig 2-1 Hamburger SV | Bundesliga |
| 18 Oct 2022 | RB Leipzig 4-0 Hamburger SV | DFB Pokal |
| 23 Apr 2019 | Hamburger SV 1-3 RB Leipzig | DFB Pokal |
| 27 Jan 2018 | RB Leipzig 1-1 Hamburger SV | Bundesliga |
Team News (Pregame)
RB Leipzig: C. Baumgartner (Thigh Injury), V. Gebel (Knee Injury), B. Gruda (Ankle Injury), R. Reitz (Muscle Injury)
Hamburger SV: M. Muheim (Muscle Injury), W. Omari (Personal Reasons), A. Rossing-Lelesiit (Ankle Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV?
RB Leipzig won 5-0. Our pre-match pick was RB Leipzig to win.
What was the final score of RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV?
RB Leipzig 5-0 Hamburger SV (full time).
When was RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV?
RB Leipzig played Hamburger SV on Sun 13 Sep · 14:30 BST in the Bundesliga at Red Bull Arena.
More Bundesliga This Week
See all Bundesliga fixtures →The combination of Leipzig’s home firepower and Hamburg’s inability to score away makes a Leipzig victory the most probable outcome.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
