Remo vs Coritiba: Remo to win
Remo's expected 1.4 goals per game edges Coritiba's 1.3, and the model rates a 39.4% chance of a Remo win – the highest single‑outcome probability on offer. Both sides have been inconsistent, but Remo's home scoring record gives them the edge.
Both clubs arrive on a seesaw stretch: Remo have slipped to a WLDDL run in their last five, while Coritiba sit on a DLWDW sequence away from home. Injuries to Remo’s key attackers and Coritiba’s defensive absentees add uncertainty, but the numbers still favor the hosts.
Bez's Verdict
Remo’s 1.4 expected home goals versus Coritiba’s 1.3 away goals, combined with a higher win probability in the model, makes a Remo victory the most plausible outcome.
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With Remo averaging 1.4 expected goals and Coritiba averaging 1.3, the model gives a 54.8% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.2% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Remo 1.4 + Coritiba 1.3) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Remo at 39.4%, the draw at 25.8%, and Coritiba at 34.8% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Remo
Remo’s recent five results (WLDDL) include a 2‑0 home win over Vitoria and a 2‑2 draw with Atletico‑MG, showing they can both create and absorb goals. The 1‑2 loss at Mirassol and the 1‑2 defeat to Fluminense illustrate defensive lapses, but the home win and draw suggest enough firepower to edge a close game, supporting a win pick.
Coritiba
Coritiba’s away form (DLWDW) features a 0‑0 draw at RB Bragantino and a 0‑1 loss to Cruzeiro, highlighting occasional offensive dryness. However, they also secured 2‑1 victories over Chapecoense‑sc and Corinthians at home, indicating they can find the net but may struggle to break down a disciplined Remo defense, reinforcing the pick of a Remo win.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Coritiba won 1‑0 in March 2026 and drew 0‑0 in August 2025, while Remo won 1‑0 in April 2025 and drew 0‑0 in October 2021. The mixed record leans slightly toward Coritiba, but the most recent home win by Remo’s opponents was narrow, keeping the home side’s chances alive.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 15 Mar 2026 | Coritiba 1-0 Remo | Serie A |
| 23 Aug 2025 | Coritiba 0-0 Remo | Serie B |
| 22 Apr 2025 | Remo 1-0 Coritiba | Serie B |
| 4 Oct 2021 | Remo 0-0 Coritiba | Serie B |
| 2 Jul 2021 | Coritiba 2-1 Remo | Serie B |
Team News (Pregame)
Remo: Edson Fernando (Inactive), Eduardo Melo (Inactive), Joao Lucas (Knee Injury), Mayk (Injury)
Coritiba: Lucas Ronier (Knee Injury), B. Ocampo (Injury), Pedro Rangel (Inactive), Tinga (Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Remo vs Coritiba?
Coritiba won 3-2. Our pre-match pick was Remo to win.
What was the final score of Remo vs Coritiba?
Remo 2-3 Coritiba (full time).
When was Remo vs Coritiba?
Remo played Coritiba on Tue 1 Sep · 00:00 BST in the Brasileirão at Estadio Evandro Almeida.
More Brasileirão This Week
See all Brasileirão fixtures →Given the narrow xG edge and Remo’s recent home win, the most logical read is that the hosts will scrape the three points.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
