Remo vs Flamengo: Flamengo to win
Flamengo's 2.0 expected goals eclipse Remo's 1.4, and the model gives the Celeste a 51.5% win chance. Both sides’ recent form and a 3-0 head‑to‑head favour the visitors.
Remo host Flamengo in the Brasileirão with a modest home scoring record of 1.4 goals per game, but they have struggled defensively, conceding 1.2. Flamengo arrive on the road averaging 2.0 goals while only letting in one, setting a clear offensive advantage.
Bez's Verdict
The model rates Flamengo’s win chance at 51.5% versus Remo’s 26.9%, driven by superior expected goals and recent form.
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With Remo averaging 1.4 expected goals and Flamengo averaging 2.0, the model gives a 65.1% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 34.9% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.4 (Remo 1.4 + Flamengo 2.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 66.0% chance against 34.0% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Remo at 26.9%, the draw at 21.7%, and Flamengo at 51.5% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 9.3% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Remo
Remo’s last five league games have produced a win, two draws and two losses (W‑L‑D‑D‑L). Highlights include a 2‑0 home win over Vitoria and a 2‑2 home draw with Atletico‑MG, indicating occasional offensive sparks but a tendency to drop points, which weakens their chance of resisting Flamengo’s attack.
Flamengo
Flamengo’s recent five outings show a draw, three wins and one loss (D‑W‑W‑L‑W). Notable results are a 5‑1 away demolition of Mirassol and a 3‑0 home win over Botafogo, confirming their ability to score heavily and keep clean sheets, bolstering the expectation of a win in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
The most recent head‑to‑head on 19 March 2026 ended 3‑0 to Flamengo, reinforcing the model’s view that the Celeste are dominant in this matchup.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 19 Mar 2026 | Flamengo 3-0 Remo | Serie A |
Team News (Pregame)
Remo: Edson Fernando (Inactive), Mayk (Injury), Joao Lucas (Knee Injury), Eduardo Melo (Inactive)
Flamengo: Alex Sandro (Calf Injury), Vitao (Muscle Injury), N. de la Cruz (Muscle Injury), Bruno Henrique (Yellow Cards)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Remo vs Flamengo?
Flamengo won 1-0. Our pre-match pick was Flamengo to win.
What was the final score of Remo vs Flamengo?
Remo 0-1 Flamengo (full time).
When was Remo vs Flamengo?
Remo played Flamengo on Sun 6 Sep · 20:00 BST in the Brasileirão at Estadio Evandro Almeida.
More Brasileirão This Week
See all Brasileirão fixtures →These numbers translate into a model win probability of 51.5% for Flamengo, making the visitors the clear favorite for the three points.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
