Remo vs Santos: Santos to win
Remo's 1.3 xG faces Santos' 1.6 xG in a clash where the model favours the visitors. The numbers point to a goal‑rich encounter with a clear edge to Santos.
Both sides enter the match on contrasting trajectories: Remo have slipped to three defeats in their last five, while Santos have collected four wins and a draw. The form gap sets the tone for a test of defensive resilience.
Bez's Verdict
Santos' 1.6 expected goals versus Remo's 1.3, combined with a 44.4% win probability, makes the visitors the logical choice.
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With Remo averaging 1.3 expected goals and Santos averaging 1.6, the model gives a 58.1% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 41.9% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.9 (Remo 1.3 + Santos 1.6) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 55.4% chance against 44.6% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Remo at 31.1%, the draw at 24.5%, and Santos at 44.4% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 11.4% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Remo
Remo's five‑game run reads D-D-L-L-L, with recent defeats to Fluminense (1‑2 away), Coritiba (2‑3 at home) and Flamengo (0‑1 at home). The three losses, each conceding two or more goals, highlight a leaky defence that weakens their chances of keeping Santos at bay.
Santos
Santos have posted W-D-W-W-W, beating Vasco da Gama 3‑0 away, drawing 1‑1 at home with Mirassol, then winning 1‑0 at Corinthians, 3‑2 at Internacional and 2‑1 at home versus Cruzeiro. Four wins in five matches, including two away triumphs, show a forward line that consistently finds the net, supporting a win prediction.
Head-to-Head
In the last three meetings, Santos have won twice (0‑1, 2‑0) and drawn once (0‑0), reinforcing the model's expectation of a Santos advantage.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2026 | Remo 0-1 Santos | Copa Do Brasil |
| 2 Aug 2026 | Santos 0-0 Remo | Copa Do Brasil |
| 2 Apr 2026 | Santos 2-0 Remo | Serie A |
Team News (Pregame)
Remo: Edson Fernando (Red Card), Joao Lucas (Knee Injury), Marcelinho (Yellow Cards), Mayk (Injury)
Santos: A. Barreal (Thigh Injury), G. Escobar (Yellow Cards), Gabriel Barbosa (Yellow Cards), Lucas Verissimo (Ankle Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Remo vs Santos?
Santos won 2-1. Our pre-match pick was Santos to win.
What was the final score of Remo vs Santos?
Remo 1-2 Santos (full time).
When was Remo vs Santos?
Remo played Santos on Sat 19 Sep · 22:30 BST in the Brasileirão at Estadio Evandro Almeida.
More Brasileirão This Week
See all Brasileirão fixtures →The statistical edge and recent scoring pattern make a Santos win the most probable outcome, with the model assigning them a 44.4% chance.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
