Rosario Central vs Newells Old Boys: Newells Old Boys Draw No Bet
Rosario Central boast a 1.4 expected‑goals per game at home while conceding just 0.9, whereas Newells Old Boys manage 1.0 xG away but leak 2.0. The model gives Central a 46.1% win chance and Newells a 26.9% chance, with a 27.0% draw probability.
Both sides arrive at the derby on contrasting recent runs – Central have slipped to a loss in their last five, while Newells have gathered momentum with two wins after three mixed results.
Bez's Verdict
The model rates Newells’ chance to avoid defeat at 53.9% (win 26.9% plus draw 27.0%), making the draw‑no‑bet a logical option despite Central’s home advantage.
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With Rosario Central averaging 1.4 expected goals and Newells Old Boys averaging 1.0, the model gives a 52.4% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 47.6% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.4 (Rosario Central 1.4 + Newells Old Boys 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 57.0% chance against 43.0% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Rosario Central at 46.1%, the draw at 27.0%, and Newells Old Boys at 26.9% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 12.7% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Rosario Central
Central’s recent five results read WWWDL, highlighted by a 2‑1 home win over Aldosivi and a 1‑0 away win at River Plate – both showing they can find the net. The recent 2‑2 draw at Talleres and 1‑2 loss to Gimnasia, however, reveal defensive lapses that keep the overall win probability modest, reinforcing the appeal of a draw‑no‑bet on Newells.
Newells Old Boys
Newells’ last five outcomes are LDLWW, featuring a 2‑0 home victory over Deportivo Riestra and a 2‑1 home win at Banfield, which demonstrate a resurgence in attack. Their earlier 1‑2 away loss to Defensa Y Justicia and 0‑1 away defeat to Independiente underline the inconsistency that makes a draw‑no‑bet a prudent hedge.
Head-to-Head
Central have won all five recent meetings – 2‑0 (2026), 1‑0 (2025‑08), 2‑1 (2025‑02), 1‑0 (2024‑08) and 1‑0 (2024‑02) – a trend that favours Central but does not negate the sizable draw probability in the model.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Mar 2026 | Newells Old Boys 0-2 Rosario Central | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 23 Aug 2025 | Rosario Central 1-0 Newells Old Boys | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 16 Feb 2025 | Newells Old Boys 1-2 Rosario Central | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 10 Aug 2024 | Rosario Central 1-0 Newells Old Boys | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 25 Feb 2024 | Newells Old Boys 0-1 Rosario Central | Copa de la Liga Profesional |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Rosario Central vs Newells Old Boys?
Rosario Central and Newells Old Boys drew 1-1. Our pre-match pick was Newells Old Boys Draw No Bet.
What was the final score of Rosario Central vs Newells Old Boys?
Rosario Central 1-1 Newells Old Boys (full time).
When was Rosario Central vs Newells Old Boys?
Rosario Central played Newells Old Boys on Sun 6 Sep · 18:45 BST in the Argentine Primera División at Estadio Gigante de Arroyito.
More Argentine Primera División This Week
See all Argentine Primera División fixtures →Given the modest win probability for Central and a sizable draw chance, the safest line is to back Newells Old Boys not to lose, i.e. a draw‑no‑bet on the visitors.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
