Rylands vs Chorley: Draw
Rylands boast a 3.0 expected‑goals tally while Chorley limp at 1.35, and the model gives Rylands a 70.4% win chance. The draw sits at a modest 14.9%, making it the least likely outcome.
In this FA Cup tie, Rylands arrive after a 3‑1 home win over Hyde United, signalling a potent attack that averages three goals per game at home. Chorley’s away record offers no goals‑for data, underlining their limited threat on the road.
Robbo's Verdict
The model assigns a 14.9% probability to a stalemate, the lowest of the three result options, signalling a low‑confidence pick.
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With Rylands averaging 3.0 expected goals and Chorley averaging 1.35, the model gives a 70.1% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 29.9% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 4.3 (Rylands 3.0 + Chorley 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 80.5% chance against 19.5% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Rylands at 70.4%, the draw at 14.9%, and Chorley at 14.3% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 2-1 at 7.8% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Rylands
Rylands’ recent form is highlighted by a 3‑1 home win over Hyde United, showing they can both score and concede. Their home goals‑for average of 3.0 and goals‑against average of 1.0 suggest a high‑scoring environment, which underpins the model’s strong win probability and makes a draw unlikely.
Chorley
Chorley’s recent form is not provided, and their away goals‑for average stands at zero, indicating a lack of scoring output on the road. This absence of offensive data reinforces the low draw probability, as they are unlikely to match Rylands’ firepower.
Head-to-Head
The only recent head‑to‑head meeting ended 3‑2 to Chorley on 7 Dec 2024, a tight game that hinted at a possible draw, but the model’s current probabilities favor Rylands heavily.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 7 Dec 2024 | Chorley 3-2 Rylands | FA Trophy |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Rylands vs Chorley?
Chorley won 1-0. Our pre-match pick was Draw.
What was the final score of Rylands vs Chorley?
Rylands 0-1 Chorley (full time).
When was Rylands vs Chorley?
Rylands played Chorley on Sat 19 Sep · 15:00 BST in the FA Cup at TBC.
More FA Cup This Week
See all FA Cup fixtures →Given the strong scoring edge but also a non‑negligible defensive concession rate, the match is tilted heavily toward a Rylands win, leaving the draw as the only realistic alternative to an outright loss for Chorley.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
