San Lorenzo vs Union Santa Fe: Both teams to score - No
San Lorenzo host Union Santa Fe in a clash where the model expects a tight game, with San Lorenzo's xG (1.2) slightly below Union's (1.4) and a 41.6% win chance for the visitors. Both sides have struggled to find the net recently, pointing to a likely single‑goal affair.
Both clubs enter the match on uneven stretches – San Lorenzo have dropped three of their last five, while Union Santa Fe have alternated wins and losses. The recent head‑to‑head shows a mix of draws and narrow results, suggesting the encounter will be decided by fine margins.
Bez's Verdict
The model assigns a 52.6% chance to both sides scoring, leaving a 47.4% probability for a clean sheet by at least one team – the higher likelihood scenario for this fixture.
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With San Lorenzo averaging 1.2 expected goals and Union Santa Fe averaging 1.4, the model gives a 52.6% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 47.4% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.6 (San Lorenzo 1.2 + Union Santa Fe 1.4) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 51.8% chance against 48.2% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has San Lorenzo at 32.2%, the draw at 26.2%, and Union Santa Fe at 41.6% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.5% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
San Lorenzo
San Lorenzo’s last five league results (L‑D‑L‑W‑L) include a 1‑0 home win over Gimnasia M. and a 1‑1 draw away at River Plate. The win shows they can grind out a result when they strike, but three recent defeats, including a 1‑2 loss at home to Independiente, underline their inconsistency – a factor that supports the likelihood of them keeping a clean sheet.
Union Santa Fe
Union Santa Fe have posted W‑L‑D‑L‑W in their last five, highlighted by a 2‑1 away victory at Independiente Rivadavia and a 2‑2 draw away at Platense. Their ability to score away is evident, yet two consecutive 0‑2 defeats (Belgrano and Gimnasia) expose defensive vulnerabilities, reinforcing the chance that San Lorenzo may hold them to no goals.
Head-to-Head
In the five most recent meetings, there have been three draws (including 0‑0 and 1‑1) and two narrow victories (2‑1 and 1‑0), indicating low‑scoring, tightly contested games – a pattern that backs the pick for both teams not scoring.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 14 Feb 2026 | Union Santa Fe 0-0 San Lorenzo | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 15 Jun 2024 | Union Santa Fe 2-1 San Lorenzo | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 5 Feb 2024 | San Lorenzo 0-0 Union Santa Fe | Copa de la Liga Profesional |
| 4 Sep 2023 | Union Santa Fe 1-1 San Lorenzo | Copa de la Liga Profesional |
| 25 Feb 2023 | San Lorenzo 1-0 Union Santa Fe | Liga Profesional Argentina |
Team News
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win San Lorenzo vs Union Santa Fe?
Both teams to score - No. The model assigns a 52.6% chance to both sides scoring, leaving a 47.4% probability for a clean sheet by at least one team – the higher likelihood scenario for this fixture.
What does the model give San Lorenzo vs Union Santa Fe?
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, gives San Lorenzo a 32.2% chance, the draw 26.2%, and Union Santa Fe 41.6% to win.
When is San Lorenzo vs Union Santa Fe?
San Lorenzo play Union Santa Fe on Sat 15 Aug · 18:30 BST in the Argentine Primera División at Estadio Pedro Bidegain.
More Argentine Primera División This Week
See all Argentine Primera División fixtures →Given the modest scoring probabilities and the recent defensive frailties, the most probable outcome is a match with only one side finding the net.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
