Santos Laguna vs CF Pachuca: CF Pachuca to win
Santos Laguna’s 0.5 xG at home meets CF Pachuca’s 1.8 xG on the road, and the model rates Pachuca’s win probability at 69 %. The numbers point to a clear advantage for the visitors.
Both clubs arrive with contrasting recent form. Laguna have turned a string of defeats into two narrow wins, while Pachuca have been unbeaten in four of their last five, suggesting a gap in momentum heading into the clash.
Jonesy's Verdict
The model assigns a 69 % probability to a Pachuca win, reflecting their superior xG and recent form.
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With Santos Laguna averaging 0.5 expected goals and CF Pachuca averaging 1.8, the model gives a 67.2% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 32.8% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.3 (Santos Laguna 0.5 + CF Pachuca 1.8) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 59.6% chance against 40.4% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Santos Laguna at 9.6%, the draw at 21.3%, and CF Pachuca at 69.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-1 at 18.0% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Santos Laguna
Laguna’s last five league games read LDLWW, with recent wins over FC Juarez (2‑1 at home) and a 3‑2 victory at Toluca. Those results show they can scrape goals, but the earlier defeats (2‑3 at Puebla and 0‑1 at Cruz Azul) underline a fragile defense that struggled to produce more than one goal per match, limiting their upside for this pick.
CF Pachuca
Pachuca’s DDWWD run includes a 2‑0 win at FC Juarez and a 3‑0 away thrashing of Atlante FC, demonstrating an ability to score multiple goals on the road. Their draws (1‑1 at Atletico San Luis and 1‑1 at Chivas) show they can also hold firm, reinforcing a high win probability against a low‑scoring opponent.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Pachuca have won three times, most recently 4‑2 in April 2026, while Laguna’s only win was 1‑0 in November 2025, indicating a head‑to‑head edge that aligns with the model’s win forecast.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 12 Apr 2026 | CF Pachuca 4-2 Santos Laguna | Liga MX |
| 9 Nov 2025 | Santos Laguna 1-0 CF Pachuca | Liga MX |
| 21 Jan 2025 | CF Pachuca 2-1 Santos Laguna | Liga MX |
| 23 Oct 2024 | Santos Laguna 1-1 CF Pachuca | Liga MX |
| 21 Apr 2024 | Santos Laguna 0-2 CF Pachuca | Liga MX |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Santos Laguna vs CF Pachuca?
Santos Laguna won 1-0. Our pre-match pick was CF Pachuca to win.
What was the final score of Santos Laguna vs CF Pachuca?
Santos Laguna 1-0 CF Pachuca (full time).
When was Santos Laguna vs CF Pachuca?
Santos Laguna played CF Pachuca on Sun 27 Sep · 02:00 BST in the Liga MX at Estadio Corona.
More Liga MX This Week
See all Liga MX fixtures →With Pachuca’s firepower and defensive solidity outmatching Laguna’s modest output, the most logical outcome is a Pachuca victory.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
