Santos Laguna vs Guadalajara Chivas: Santos Laguna to win
Santos Laguna average 1.35 expected goals versus Chivas' 1.0, and the model rates Laguna's win chance at 44.8% – the clearest edge in the market. Both sides have sputtered recently, but Laguna's superior xG tilts the balance.
This Liga MX clash pits a home side that has struggled to score at home (0.0 goals per game) against a Chivas side that has been inconsistent on the road. With Laguna seeking to rebound from a string of defeats and Chivas trying to stabilise after a mixed run, the match offers a clear test of offensive efficiency.
Jonesy's Verdict
The model assigns Laguna a 44.8% chance to win, the highest of the three outcomes, driven by their superior expected‑goals figure.
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With Santos Laguna averaging 1.35 expected goals and Guadalajara Chivas averaging 1.0, the model gives a 53.2% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 46.8% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.4 (Santos Laguna 1.35 + Guadalajara Chivas 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 58.3% chance against 41.7% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Santos Laguna at 44.8%, the draw at 27.5%, and Guadalajara Chivas at 27.7% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 12.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Santos Laguna
Laguna's recent five matches read LWLLL, highlighted by a dominant 3‑0 home win over Monterrey and a 0‑2 away loss to Atletico San Luis. The lone win shows they can produce goals, but the four defeats underline defensive frailties – a factor that keeps the win probability modest but still ahead of Chivas.
Guadalajara Chivas
Chivas' last five results are DLLWD, featuring a 2‑2 away draw with Cruz Azul and a 1‑0 home win over FC Juarez. The draw demonstrates their ability to hold opponents, while the win shows occasional sharpness, yet the two losses and a draw keep their win odds lower than Laguna's.
Head-to-Head
In the most recent head‑to‑head, Chivas thumped Laguna 3‑0 on 14 Mar 2026, but Laguna turned the tables 1‑0 on 11 Aug 2025. The mixed record leans slightly toward Chivas, which slightly contradicts the model’s win tilt for Laguna.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 14 Mar 2026 | Guadalajara Chivas 3-0 Santos Laguna | Liga MX |
| 11 Aug 2025 | Santos Laguna 1-0 Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX |
| 12 Jan 2025 | Guadalajara Chivas 1-0 Santos Laguna | Liga MX |
| 6 Nov 2024 | Santos Laguna 0-2 Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX |
| 14 Jan 2024 | Guadalajara Chivas 1-1 Santos Laguna | Liga MX |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Santos Laguna vs Guadalajara Chivas?
Guadalajara Chivas won 1-0. Our pre-match pick was Santos Laguna to win.
What was the final score of Santos Laguna vs Guadalajara Chivas?
Santos Laguna 0-1 Guadalajara Chivas (full time).
When was Santos Laguna vs Guadalajara Chivas?
Santos Laguna played Guadalajara Chivas on Mon 17 Aug · 02:00 BST in the Liga MX at Estadio Corona.
More Liga MX This Week
See all Liga MX fixtures →Given the xG advantage and the model’s clear win probability, the logical read is that Laguna will edge this encounter despite recent form concerns.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
