Santos vs Cruzeiro: Santos to win
Santos's 1.4 expected goals at home edges out Cruzeiro's 1.2 away, and the model backs a Santos win at 41.6%. Both sides have similar BTTS odds, but the home side's recent form tilts the balance.
Santos host Cruzeiro in a clash that pits a revitalised Santos attack against a Cruzeiro squad that has slipped a single match in its last five. Both clubs have been mixing wins and a lone loss, making the fixture a test of who can convert chances into points.
Bez's Verdict
The model assigns Santos a 41.6% chance to win versus 32.2% for Cruzeiro, reflecting the home side’s superior expected‑goals and recent form.
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With Santos averaging 1.4 expected goals and Cruzeiro averaging 1.2, the model gives a 52.6% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 47.4% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.6 (Santos 1.4 + Cruzeiro 1.2) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 51.8% chance against 48.2% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Santos at 41.6%, the draw at 26.2%, and Cruzeiro at 32.2% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.5% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Santos
Santos’s last five league results read LWDWW, including a 0-2 loss to Atletico Paranaense at home and a 3-0 away win over Vasco. The recent 3-2 away victory against Internacional shows the team can score multiple goals, reinforcing the model’s confidence in a home win.
Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro’s form of WWWLW features three consecutive wins (3-1 vs Mirassol, 2-1 vs Corinthians, 2-1 vs Flamengo) before a 1-3 loss at Vasco and a bounce‑back 3-1 win over Atletico Paranaense. The single loss suggests vulnerability that Santos can exploit for a win.
Head-to-Head
In the recent head‑to‑head, Santos beat Cruzeiro 3-0 on 2025‑12‑07, while the earlier 2025‑08‑10 match ended 2-1 to Santos. These results favor the pick, indicating Santos can win at home.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 22 Mar 2026 | Cruzeiro 0-0 Santos | Serie A |
| 7 Dec 2025 | Santos 3-0 Cruzeiro | Serie A |
| 10 Aug 2025 | Cruzeiro 1-2 Santos | Serie A |
| 14 Sep 2023 | Santos 0-3 Cruzeiro | Serie A |
| 6 May 2023 | Cruzeiro 2-1 Santos | Serie A |
Team News (Pregame)
Santos: A. Barreal (Yellow Cards), Lucas Verissimo (Yellow Cards), Neymar (Thigh Injury), Vinicius Lira (Knee Injury)
Cruzeiro: Gabriel Pec (Broken Leg), Jonathan Jesus (Injury), L. Sinisterra (Muscle Injury), Bruno Rodrigues (Inactive)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Santos vs Cruzeiro?
Santos won 2-1. Our pre-match pick was Santos to win.
What was the final score of Santos vs Cruzeiro?
Santos 2-1 Cruzeiro (full time).
When was Santos vs Cruzeiro?
Santos played Cruzeiro on Sun 13 Sep · 01:00 BST in the Brasileirão at Estadio Urbano Caldeira.
More Brasileirão This Week
See all Brasileirão fixtures →Given Santos's slight xG edge and its recent ability to grind out wins, the model’s clearest signal points to a home victory.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
