Santos vs Mirassol: Santos to win
Santos enter this clash with a 48.6% win probability against Mirassol, whose expected goals sit at 0.9. The model’s xG differential and recent form tilt the balance toward the home side.
Both clubs arrive needing points, but Santos have been erratic, registering two defeats and a draw before a recent win, while Mirassol’s form has slipped after a brief spell of victories. The fixture pits a traditionally stronger Santos side against a Mirassol unit that has struggled defensively on the road.
Bez's Verdict
The model assigns Santos a 48.6% chance to win, driven by a higher expected‑goals figure and a recent 3‑0 victory over Vasco.
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With Santos averaging 1.4 expected goals and Mirassol averaging 0.9, the model gives a 55.3% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 44.7% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.3 (Santos 1.4 + Mirassol 0.9) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 59.6% chance against 40.4% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Santos at 48.6%, the draw at 27.2%, and Mirassol at 24.2% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 14.0% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Santos
Santos have lost 1‑2 away at Botafogo, drawn 2‑2 at home to Chapecoense, and fell 0‑2 at home to Atletico Paranaense before snapping the run with a 3‑0 away win over Vasco. Those results show a fluctuating defence but a potent attack capable of three‑goal bursts, reinforcing the win probability for this match.
Mirassol
Mirassol beat Gremio 2‑1 at home, drew 1‑1 away at Vasco, then won 2‑1 at home against Remo before suffering heavy defeats 1‑3 at Cruzeiro and 1‑5 at home to Flamengo. The recent losses, especially the 1‑5 drubbing, highlight defensive frailties that support a Santos win.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Santos have won twice (2‑1 and 3‑2), drawn twice (2‑2 and 1‑1), and lost once (0‑3), indicating a slight edge for Santos that aligns with the model’s win rating.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 11 Mar 2026 | Mirassol 2-2 Santos | Serie A |
| 20 Nov 2025 | Santos 1-1 Mirassol | Serie A |
| 19 Jul 2025 | Mirassol 3-0 Santos | Serie A |
| 17 Jan 2025 | Santos 2-1 Mirassol | Paulista - A1 |
| 12 Oct 2024 | Santos 3-2 Mirassol | Serie B |
Team News (Pregame)
Santos: A. Frias (Transfer negotiations), Gabriel Bontempo (Injury), Lucas Verissimo (Calf Injury), Moises (Ankle Injury)
Mirassol: Jose Aldo (Muscle Injury), Negueba (Knee Injury), Walter (Inactive), Alesson (Inactive)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Santos vs Mirassol?
Santos and Mirassol drew 1-1. Our pre-match pick was Santos to win.
What was the final score of Santos vs Mirassol?
Santos 1-1 Mirassol (full time).
When was Santos vs Mirassol?
Santos played Mirassol on Sun 23 Aug · 22:30 BST in the Brasileirão at Estadio Urbano Caldeira.
More Brasileirão This Week
See all Brasileirão fixtures →Putting the numbers together, Santos’ superior xG and home record make them the clear favorite for three points.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
