Sarmiento Junin vs Huracan: Sarmiento Junin to win
Sarmiento Junin's recent surge gives them a 43.4% chance to beat Huracan, the highest probability among the three outcomes. The model’s xG edge (1.3 vs 1.0) underpins the pick.
Both sides have mixed form, but Sarmiento Junin entered the clash on a two‑game winning streak after three straight defeats. Huracan, meanwhile, have been erratic, slipping to a loss after a win and a draw in their last five.
Bez's Verdict
With a 43.4% win probability – the top of the three model outcomes – the home side’s recent form and xG advantage make a win the most likely result.
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With Sarmiento Junin averaging 1.3 expected goals and Huracan averaging 1.0, the model gives a 54.0% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 46.0% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.3 (Sarmiento Junin 1.3 + Huracan 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 59.6% chance against 40.4% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Sarmiento Junin at 43.4%, the draw at 28.0%, and Huracan at 28.6% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 13.0% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Sarmiento Junin
Sarmiento Junin’s last five league results read LLLWW, highlighted by a 2‑1 home win over Independ. Rivadavia and a 2‑1 away win at Atletico Tucuman. Those back‑to‑back victories after three defeats show an upward swing that supports a home win in this fixture.
Huracan
Huracan’s form of LWLDW includes a 2‑0 away win at San Lorenzo but also a 0‑1 loss at Argentinos JRS and a 1‑2 defeat at Independ. Rivadavia. The mix of a recent win and several setbacks signals inconsistency, weakening their case for an away victory here.
Head-to-Head
In the five most recent meetings, Huracan have won three (including a 1‑0 win in February 2026) and the other two were draws, indicating Huracan’s historical edge but not enough to outweigh Sarmiento’s current form and xG advantage.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 14 Feb 2026 | Huracan 1-0 Sarmiento Junin | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 5 Oct 2024 | Huracan 3-1 Sarmiento Junin | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 21 May 2023 | Sarmiento Junin 0-0 Huracan | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 12 Aug 2022 | Huracan 4-1 Sarmiento Junin | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 13 Sep 2021 | Sarmiento Junin 0-0 Huracan | Liga Profesional Argentina |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Sarmiento Junin vs Huracan?
Sarmiento Junin won 2-0. Our pre-match pick was Sarmiento Junin to win.
What was the final score of Sarmiento Junin vs Huracan?
Sarmiento Junin 2-0 Huracan (full time).
When was Sarmiento Junin vs Huracan?
Sarmiento Junin played Huracan on Sun 16 Aug · 19:00 BST in the Argentine Primera División at Estadio Eva Peron.
More Argentine Primera División This Week
See all Argentine Primera División fixtures →The combination of a higher xG, recent wins, and a modest edge in expected goals points to a home victory as the most probable outcome.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
