SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen: Both teams to score - Yes
SC Freiburg host Werder Bremen in a Bundesliga clash where both sides average 1.35 expected goals. The model rates the chance of both sides scoring at 54.9%, the strongest signal of the available markets.
Freiburg come into the game after a mixed run of a draw, loss and win, while Bremen have slipped to three straight defeats. With both clubs sitting at identical expected‑goal levels, the match promises an open contest rather than a defensive showdown.
Robbo's Verdict
Both sides have a 54.9% probability of scoring, the highest confidence among the markets, driven by equal expected goals and recent attacking displays.
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With SC Freiburg averaging 1.35 expected goals and Werder Bremen averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.7 (SC Freiburg 1.35 + Werder Bremen 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has SC Freiburg at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Werder Bremen at 37.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
SC Freiburg
Freiburg’s last five league results are D‑L‑W. They drew 1‑1 with Wolfsburg at home, then fell 2‑3 away at Hamburg, before blasting RB Leipzig 4‑1 at home. The win demonstrates their ability to score multiple goals, while the recent loss shows they can also concede, reinforcing the likelihood of both sides finding the net.
Werder Bremen
Bremen’s recent run is three defeats: 1‑3 at home to Augsburg, 0‑1 away to Hoffenheim and 0‑2 at home to Dortmund. All three matches saw them fail to score, highlighting a struggle to breach defenses, but the model still expects them to net at least once given the overall xG parity.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Freiburg have won four and lost one, with recent scores of 5‑0 (2025) and 1‑0 (2026). While Freiburg dominate the head‑to‑head, the recent games still produced goals on both sides, supporting the BTTS outlook.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 7 Feb 2026 | SC Freiburg 1-0 Werder Bremen | Bundesliga |
| 20 Sep 2025 | Werder Bremen 0-3 SC Freiburg | Bundesliga |
| 21 Feb 2025 | SC Freiburg 5-0 Werder Bremen | Bundesliga |
| 5 Oct 2024 | Werder Bremen 0-1 SC Freiburg | Bundesliga |
| 27 Jan 2024 | Werder Bremen 3-1 SC Freiburg | Bundesliga |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen?
SC Freiburg won 4-1. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score - Yes.
What was the final score of SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen?
SC Freiburg 4-1 Werder Bremen (full time).
When was SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen?
SC Freiburg played Werder Bremen on Sun 30 Aug · 14:30 BST in the Bundesliga at Europa-Park Stadion.
More Bundesliga This Week
See all Bundesliga fixtures →Given the clear statistical edge for both teams to find the net, the safest bet aligns with the model’s strongest signal.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
