SC Paderborn 07 vs 1899 Hoffenheim: Hoffenheim to win
Paderborn's low home xG of 1.35 meets Hoffenheim's 2.0 away xG, and the model rates a Hoffenheim win at 52.5%. Both sides' recent form and head‑to‑head suggest the visitors will out‑shoot the hosts.
Paderborn have struggled to find the net at home this season, averaging zero goals per game, while Hoffenheim have been scoring two goals per away game. With Paderborn's recent league run of one win, two draws and two defeats, the balance is clearly tipped toward the away side.
Robbo's Verdict
The model gives Hoffenheim a 52.5% chance of victory, double Paderborn’s 25.8%, and their superior away xG reinforces that edge.
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With SC Paderborn 07 averaging 1.35 expected goals and 1899 Hoffenheim averaging 2.0, the model gives a 64.0% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 36.0% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.4 (SC Paderborn 07 1.35 + 1899 Hoffenheim 2.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 65.0% chance against 35.0% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has SC Paderborn 07 at 25.8%, the draw at 21.7%, and 1899 Hoffenheim at 52.5% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 9.5% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
SC Paderborn 07
Paderborn’s recent five-game string D‑W‑D‑L‑L includes a 2‑1 home win over VfL Wolfsburg, showing they can score when behind, but also a 0‑3 away loss at Borussia Dortmund, highlighting defensive frailties. The mixture of one win and two draws against three defeats implies limited offensive firepower, supporting a Hoffenheim advantage in the match‑result pick.
1899 Hoffenheim
Hoffenheim have endured three straight defeats (0‑4, 2‑3, 2‑3) before a 2‑1 home win over VfB Stuttgart, indicating they have rebounded offensively. The recent win demonstrates they can convert their 2.0 away xG into goals, reinforcing the expectation of a Hoffenheim victory.
Head-to-Head
In the last four meetings, Hoffenheim have won twice (3‑0 in 2019 and 1‑0 in 2014) and drawn twice (1‑1 in 2020 and 0‑0 in 2015), giving them a slight edge that aligns with the model’s win probability.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 23 May 2020 | SC Paderborn 07 1-1 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga |
| 1 Nov 2019 | 1899 Hoffenheim 3-0 SC Paderborn 07 | Bundesliga |
| 21 Mar 2015 | SC Paderborn 07 0-0 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga |
| 25 Oct 2014 | 1899 Hoffenheim 1-0 SC Paderborn 07 | Bundesliga |
Team News (Pregame)
SC Paderborn 07: N. Awortwie-Grant (Knee Injury), L. Eickel (Back Injury), T. Gayret (Knee Injury), S. Klaas (Muscle Injury)
1899 Hoffenheim: A. Prass (Muscle Injury), F. Asllani (Injury), T. Lemperle (Red Card)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won SC Paderborn 07 vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
SC Paderborn 07 won 3-1. Our pre-match pick was Hoffenheim to win.
What was the final score of SC Paderborn 07 vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
SC Paderborn 07 3-1 1899 Hoffenheim (full time).
When was SC Paderborn 07 vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
SC Paderborn 07 played 1899 Hoffenheim on Sun 20 Sep · 18:30 BST in the Bundesliga at Home Deluxe Arena.
More Bundesliga This Week
See all Bundesliga fixtures →Given the xG gap, the higher probability of a Hoffenheim win, and the recent form trends, the model’s strongest signal points to the visitors prevailing.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
