SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg: Over 2.5 goals
Paderborn host Freiburg in a Bundesliga opener where both sides register identical xG of 1.35, but recent goal floods hint at a higher scoring affair.
Both clubs arrive with contrasting recent form – Paderborn have been hard‑pressed for goals while Freiburg have been firing on all cylinders – setting up a clash of opposite recent trajectories.
Robbo's Verdict
The model’s 50.6% probability for over 2.5 goals, backed by Freiburg’s recent 4‑1 wins and a head‑to‑head history of four out of five matches producing three or more goals, makes the over the clear edge.
Show the maths
With SC Paderborn 07 averaging 1.35 expected goals and SC Freiburg averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
Show the maths
Combined expected goals of 2.7 (SC Paderborn 07 1.35 + SC Freiburg 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has SC Paderborn 07 at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and SC Freiburg at 37.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
SC Paderborn 07
Paderborn’s last five league results are D‑W‑D, with a 2‑1 home victory over VfL Wolfsburg (H) and a 0‑0 draw away at VfL Wolfsburg (A). The win shows they can find the net, but the two goalless draws highlight a tendency toward low‑scoring games – a factor that tempers the over‑goal expectation for the home side.
SC Freiburg
Freiburg’s recent form reads L‑W‑W, featuring a 2‑3 loss away to Hamburger SV (A) and emphatic 4‑1 home wins over RB Leipzig (H) and Werder Bremen (H). The double‑digit victories prove their capacity to flood the net, reinforcing the model’s view that the match is likely to exceed two goals.
Head-to-Head
In the five most recent meetings, four produced three or more goals – 1‑3 Freiburg win (2023), 1‑3 Freiburg win (2019), 1‑2 Freiburg win (2016), and 4‑1 Freiburg win (2015) – a pattern that supports the over‑goal outlook despite the low‑scoring 0‑2 result in 2020.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Nov 2023 | SC Freiburg 1-3 SC Paderborn 07 | DFB Pokal |
| 25 Jan 2020 | SC Freiburg 0-2 SC Paderborn 07 | Bundesliga |
| 24 Aug 2019 | SC Paderborn 07 1-3 SC Freiburg | Bundesliga |
| 29 Apr 2016 | SC Paderborn 07 1-2 SC Freiburg | 2. Bundesliga |
| 22 Nov 2015 | SC Freiburg 4-1 SC Paderborn 07 | 2. Bundesliga |
Team News (Pregame)
SC Paderborn 07: N. Awortwie-Grant (Knee Injury), L. Eickel (Inactive), T. Gayret (Knee Injury), S. Michel (Muscle Injury)
SC Freiburg: F. Muslija (Knee Injury), P. Osterhage (Muscle Injury), R. Yamamoto (Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg?
SC Freiburg won 1-0. Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals.
What was the final score of SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg?
SC Paderborn 07 0-1 SC Freiburg (full time).
When was SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg?
SC Paderborn 07 played SC Freiburg on Sat 5 Sep · 14:30 BST in the Bundesliga at Home Deluxe Arena.
More Bundesliga This Week
See all Bundesliga fixtures →Given the goal‑rich recent displays and the head‑to‑head tendency for high‑scoring games, the most logical read points to more than two goals in this fixture.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
