Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk: Dundalk to win
Shamrock Rovers boast a 1.8 xG home rate while Dundalk sit on 1.4 xG away, yet the market undervalues Dundalk’s win probability.
Both sides arrive with contrasting recent form – Rovers have been hard to beat at home, whereas Dundalk have struggled to find points on the road.
Hamish's Verdict
Bet on Dundalk to win at 4.9, as the model’s 30 % probability offers a clear edge over the market’s 20.4 % pricing.
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With Shamrock Rovers averaging 1.8 expected goals and Dundalk averaging 1.4, the model gives a 62.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 37.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.2 (Shamrock Rovers 1.8 + Dundalk 1.4) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 62.0% chance against 38.0% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Shamrock Rovers at 47.0%, the draw at 22.9%, and Dundalk at 30.0% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 10.3% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Shamrock Rovers
Rovers’ recent league run (D 1‑1 Derry City, W 3‑1 Galway United, W 2‑1 Sligo Rovers, D 0‑0 Drogheda United) shows they can score but also concede, with three of four games producing goals. This mix of scoring potency and occasional lapses underpins a moderate win probability against Dundalk.
Dundalk
Dundalk’s last five league outings (L 2‑3 Waterford, L 1‑2 Shelbourne, L 1‑2 Drogheda United, D 1‑1 St Patrick’s Athl., D 1‑1 Sligo Rovers) reveal a pattern of high‑scoring defeats followed by low‑scoring draws, indicating they can find the net but are vulnerable defensively – a profile that matches the model’s 30 % win estimate.
Head-to-Head
In the five recent meetings, Dundalk have won twice (1‑0 on 15 May 2026 and 17 May 2024) and drawn once (1‑1 on 23 Feb 2026), while Rovers have secured two victories (1‑0 on 27 Oct 2024 and 4 Jul 2024), suggesting a fairly balanced rivalry that still tilts slightly toward Dundalk’s recent success.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 15 May 2026 | Dundalk 1-0 Shamrock Rovers | Premier Division |
| 23 Feb 2026 | Shamrock Rovers 1-1 Dundalk | Premier Division |
| 27 Oct 2024 | Dundalk 0-1 Shamrock Rovers | Premier Division |
| 4 Jul 2024 | Shamrock Rovers 1-0 Dundalk | Premier Division |
| 17 May 2024 | Dundalk 1-0 Shamrock Rovers | Premier Division |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk?
Shamrock Rovers won 3-2. Our pre-match pick was Dundalk to win.
What was the final score of Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk?
Shamrock Rovers 3-2 Dundalk (full time).
When was Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk?
Shamrock Rovers played Dundalk on Fri 7 Aug · 20:00 BST in the League of Ireland at Tallaght Stadium.
More League of Ireland This Week
See all League of Ireland fixtures →The model assigns a 30 % win chance to Dundalk, well above the 20.4 % implied by the 4.9 odds, indicating real value on the underdog.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
