Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl.: Shelbourne to win
Shelbourne's 1.4 xG versus St Patrick's 1.0 xG backs a home win, despite both sides' recent inconsistency.
Both teams come into the clash with spotty form – Shelbourne have managed just one win in five, while St Patrick's have drawn three of their last five. The uneven recent results set the stage for a tight encounter at Tolka Park.
Hamish's Verdict
The model assigns Shelbourne a 46.1% chance of winning versus 26.9% for St Patrick's, reflecting the home side's edge in expected goals.
Show the maths
With Shelbourne averaging 1.4 expected goals and St Patrick's Athl. averaging 1.0, the model gives a 52.4% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 47.6% it gives to both teams scoring.
Show the maths
Combined expected goals of 2.4 (Shelbourne 1.4 + St Patrick's Athl. 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 57.0% chance against 43.0% for Over.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Shelbourne at 46.1%, the draw at 27.0%, and St Patrick's Athl. at 26.9% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 12.7% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Shelbourne
Shelbourne's recent run reads D 2-2 at Drogheda, L 0-3 to Bohemians, D 2-2 at Sligo, W 2-1 over Dundalk and L 0-1 at Waterford – two defeats, two draws and a single win. The solitary win against Dundalk shows they can break through, but the three matches without a win underline why the model still favours only a modest win probability.
St Patrick's Athl.
St Patrick's have logged L 0-2 at Bohemians, W 3-0 over Galway United, D 1-1 at Waterford, D 1-1 vs Dundalk and D 1-1 at Derry City – three draws, one win and one loss. Their ability to snatch points without scoring many goals aligns with the model's lower win probability for them.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Shelbourne have won twice (0-1 and 0-1), St Patrick's have also won twice (2-0 and 2-3), and one game ended 0-0 – the head‑to‑head record is evenly split, offering no strong contrary signal to the model's home win tilt.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 15 May 2026 | St Patrick's Athl. 0-1 Shelbourne | Premier Division |
| 6 Mar 2026 | Shelbourne 2-3 St Patrick's Athl. | Premier Division |
| 1 Nov 2025 | Shelbourne 0-0 St Patrick's Athl. | Premier Division |
| 17 Aug 2025 | St Patrick's Athl. 2-0 Shelbourne | FAI Cup |
| 16 Jun 2025 | St Patrick's Athl. 0-1 Shelbourne | Premier Division |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl.?
St Patrick's Athl. won 2-1. Our pre-match pick was Shelbourne to win.
What was the final score of Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Shelbourne 1-2 St Patrick's Athl. (full time).
When was Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Shelbourne played St Patrick's Athl. on Sun 9 Aug · 17:00 BST in the League of Ireland at Tolka Park.
More League of Ireland This Week
See all League of Ireland fixtures →Given the slight xG advantage and the home side's better win probability, the model leans toward a Shelbourne victory.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
