Sholing vs Andover New Street preview by Robbo for TerraceBet

FA Cup · Round of 16 FT · Sholing 2-0 Andover New Street TBC

Sholing vs Andover New Street: Sholing to win

Sholing host Andover New Street in a FA Cup first‑round tie where both sides sit on identical expected‑goals of 1.35. The model’s win odds are evenly split at 37.1%, making the home side’s slight edge the most concrete signal.

Robbo — Lead Predictions Writer, Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups

Stats-first, no filler, model-backed picks

Robbo's Take

Headline Pick

Sholing to win Won

Lean · Home edge

Both Teams to Score

BTTS — Yes Lost

54.9% model probability

Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Lost

50.6% model probability

Both clubs enter this cup fixture with modest scoring records, reflected in the identical 1.35 expected‑goals each. With no clear dominance in recent league form, the match hinges on which side can translate that average into a decisive strike.

Robbo's Verdict

Lean

Sholing to win Won Slight lean Lean · Home edge

The model rates Sholing’s win chance at 37.1% versus Andover’s identical figure, but the home advantage nudges the probability in Sholing’s favour.

Show the maths

Both teams are modelled at 1.35 expected goals, which translates to identical baseline scoring chances. The match‑result model splits the win probability equally at 37.1% for each side, with a lower 25.8% draw likelihood. Adding the home venue factor, the model nudges Sholing’s win chance just above Andover’s, producing the headline pick.

Pick 2 · Both Teams to Score

Both Teams to Score — Yes Lost 54.9% model probability

With Sholing averaging 1.35 expected goals and Andover New Street averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.

Show the maths

BTTS probability is derived from each side's expected goals (Sholing 1.35, Andover New Street 1.35) run through the same Poisson goal-expectancy model used for the match result: 54.9% of simulated outcomes have both teams scoring at least once, versus 45.1% where at least one side is shut out.

Pick 3 · Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Lost 50.6% model probability

Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Sholing 1.35 + Andover New Street 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.

Show the maths

Total goals probability comes from the same Poisson model summing both teams' expected goals (Sholing 1.35 + Andover New Street 1.35 = 2.7 combined): 50.6% of simulated outcomes finish with 3 or more goals, versus 49.4% finishing with 2 or fewer.

Match Result Model

Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Sholing at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Andover New Street at 37.1% to win.

Most Likely Scoreline

The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.

The Numbers Behind the Headline

Sholing expected goals

1.35

Andover New Street expected goals

1.35

Model BTTS probability

54.9%

Most likely scorelines

11-1

12.2%

20-1

9.1%

31-0

9.1%

Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.

Team News (Pregame)

No notable injury concerns were on record for either side heading into this match.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who won Sholing vs Andover New Street?

Sholing won 2-0. Our pre-match pick was Sholing to win.

What was the final score of Sholing vs Andover New Street?

Sholing 2-0 Andover New Street (full time).

When was Sholing vs Andover New Street?

Sholing played Andover New Street on Sat 5 Sep · 15:00 BST in the FA Cup at TBC.

More FA Cup This Week

See all FA Cup fixtures →

Given the equal expected‑goals but the home side’s inherent edge, the model assigns Sholing a marginally higher win probability, making a Sholing victory the clearest single‑market signal.

Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org

Written by Robbo

Lead Predictions Writer, TerraceBet — Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups