Slough Town vs Chatham Town: Chatham Town to win
Chatham Town arrive in the FA Cup tie with a 4.0 xG rating versus Slough Town’s 1.35, and the model assigns them an 80.7% chance of victory. The numbers point to a one‑sided probability that the away side will dominate.
Both clubs have little to lose in the early round, but the statistical gulf is stark. Slough’s home goal average sits at zero while Chatham have been scoring four per game away, signalling a clear imbalance in attacking potency.
Robbo's Verdict
The model gives Chatham an 80.7% chance of winning, driven by their 4.0 xG versus Slough’s 1.35 and a clean‑sheet record of zero goals conceded away.
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With Slough Town averaging 1.35 expected goals and Chatham Town averaging 4.0, the model gives a 71.1% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 28.9% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 5.3 (Slough Town 1.35 + Chatham Town 4.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 88.1% chance against 11.9% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Slough Town at 7.7%, the draw at 9.5%, and Chatham Town at 80.7% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-3 at 6.8% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Head-to-Head
In the last three meetings, the teams have drawn 2‑2 and 1‑1, while Slough won 3‑0 away in September 2024. The recent draws suggest parity, but the model’s current xG disparity tilts the trend toward Chatham.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 4 Jul 2026 | Chatham Town 2-2 Slough Town | Friendlies Clubs |
| 16 Nov 2024 | Slough Town 1-1 Chatham Town | FA Trophy |
| 28 Sep 2024 | Chatham Town 0-3 Slough Town | FA Cup |
Team News
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win Slough Town vs Chatham Town?
Chatham Town to win. The model gives Chatham an 80.7% chance of winning, driven by their 4.0 xG versus Slough’s 1.35 and a clean‑sheet record of zero goals conceded away.
What does the model give Slough Town vs Chatham Town?
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, gives Slough Town a 7.7% chance, the draw 9.5%, and Chatham Town 80.7% to win.
When is Slough Town vs Chatham Town?
Slough Town play Chatham Town on Sat 19 Sep · 15:00 BST in the FA Cup at TBC.
More FA Cup This Week
See all FA Cup fixtures →Given the overwhelming xG advantage and Chatham’s recent away form, the most logical read is a comfortable victory for the away side.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
