Sonderjyske vs AC Horsens: Under 2.5 goals
AC Horsens arrive in Jutland with a 1.5‑goal per game average, while Sonderjyske struggle at 0.7. The model rates the match at 62.3% probability for under 2.5 goals.
Both sides come into the clash with contrasting recent form – Sonderjyske have lost four of their last five, and AC Horsens have rebounded with two wins out of five. The goal‑rich head‑to‑head history adds a tactical edge to a game that could stay tight.
Lars's Verdict
The model assigns a 62.3% probability to fewer than 2.5 goals, reflecting the low xG figures and defensive records of both clubs.
Show the maths
With Sonderjyske averaging 0.7 expected goals and AC Horsens averaging 1.5, the model gives a 60.9% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 39.1% it gives to both teams scoring.
Show the maths
Combined expected goals of 2.2 (Sonderjyske 0.7 + AC Horsens 1.5) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 62.3% chance against 37.7% for Over.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Sonderjyske at 17.4%, the draw at 26.1%, and AC Horsens at 56.5% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-1 at 16.6% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Sonderjyske
Sonderjyske’s last five league outings read LLDLL, including a 2‑3 loss to FC Midtjylland at home and a 0‑3 home defeat by FC Nordsjaelland. Four defeats in five matches underline a fragile attack, which supports a low‑scoring encounter.
AC Horsens
AC Horsens have posted LLWWL, highlighted by a 2‑1 away win at Odense and a 2‑1 home victory over Lyngby. Their two recent wins show they can score, but the overall five‑match stretch still features three losses, indicating they are unlikely to breach the 2.5‑goal mark against a low‑xG side.
Head-to-Head
The recent head‑to‑head record favours high scores – a 4‑1 win for Sonderjyske in March 2024 and a 5‑0 result in August 2023 – but the model’s current xG assessment points to a tighter game this time.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 9 Mar 2024 | AC Horsens 1-4 Sonderjyske | 1. Division |
| 12 Aug 2023 | Sonderjyske 5-0 AC Horsens | 1. Division |
| 9 Aug 2023 | AC Horsens 1-2 Sonderjyske | DBU Pokalen |
| 20 May 2021 | AC Horsens 1-2 Sonderjyske | Superliga |
| 11 Apr 2021 | Sonderjyske 2-3 AC Horsens | Superliga |
Team News (Pregame)
Sonderjyske: M. Olesen (Injury), P. Kristensen (Inactive), R. Vinderslev (Injury), D. L. Gretarsson (Inactive)
AC Horsens: C. Vestergaard (Knee Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Sonderjyske vs AC Horsens?
AC Horsens won 5-2. Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals.
What was the final score of Sonderjyske vs AC Horsens?
Sonderjyske 2-5 AC Horsens (full time).
When was Sonderjyske vs AC Horsens?
Sonderjyske played AC Horsens on Sun 6 Sep · 13:00 BST in the Danish Superliga at Haderslev Football Stadium.
More Danish Superliga This Week
See all Danish Superliga fixtures →With the combined expected goal tally hovering around 2.2 and the model’s under‑2.5 odds at 62.3%, the match is primed to stay below the goal line.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
