St. Blazey vs Tiverton Town preview by Robbo for TerraceBet

FA Cup · Round of 16 FT · St. Blazey 1-2 Tiverton Town TBC

St. Blazey vs Tiverton Town: St. Blazey draw no bet

St. Blazey and Tiverton Town are evenly matched on paper, each posting a 1.35 expected‑goals mark and identical win odds of 37.1%. The model’s strongest signal is the safety net of a draw‑no‑bet on St. Blazey.

Robbo — Lead Predictions Writer, Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups

Stats-first, no filler, model-backed picks

Robbo's Take

Headline Pick

St. Blazey draw no bet Lost

Solid · Safety net

Both Teams to Score

BTTS — Yes Won

54.9% model probability

Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Won

50.6% model probability

In the early round of the FA Cup, both clubs come in with no recent form data to sway the odds, meaning the preview must lean on season‑long scoring rates and the model’s probability calculations.

Robbo's Verdict

Solid

St. Blazey draw no bet Lost Solid · Safety net

St. Blazey’s chance of either winning or drawing adds up to 62.9%, the highest single‑market probability the model provides for this fixture.

Show the maths

The model gives St. Blazey a 37.1% win probability and the draw a 25.8% chance. Adding these together yields a 62.9% probability that St. Blazey will avoid defeat. Because the expected‑goals figures are identical (1.35 each), there is no clear scoring advantage, so the draw‑no‑bet market captures the only statistically significant edge.

Pick 2 · Both Teams to Score

Both Teams to Score — Yes Won 54.9% model probability

With St. Blazey averaging 1.35 expected goals and Tiverton Town averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.

Show the maths

BTTS probability is derived from each side's expected goals (St. Blazey 1.35, Tiverton Town 1.35) run through the same Poisson goal-expectancy model used for the match result: 54.9% of simulated outcomes have both teams scoring at least once, versus 45.1% where at least one side is shut out.

Pick 3 · Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Won 50.6% model probability

Combined expected goals of 2.7 (St. Blazey 1.35 + Tiverton Town 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.

Show the maths

Total goals probability comes from the same Poisson model summing both teams' expected goals (St. Blazey 1.35 + Tiverton Town 1.35 = 2.7 combined): 50.6% of simulated outcomes finish with 3 or more goals, versus 49.4% finishing with 2 or fewer.

Match Result Model

Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has St. Blazey at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Tiverton Town at 37.1% to win.

Most Likely Scoreline

The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.

The Numbers Behind the Headline

St. Blazey expected goals

1.35

Tiverton Town expected goals

1.35

Model BTTS probability

54.9%

Most likely scorelines

11-1

12.2%

20-1

9.1%

31-0

9.1%

Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.

Team News (Pregame)

No notable injury concerns were on record for either side heading into this match.

Talking Points · Deano

Blazey bounced back in the Cup

2 talking points · 1 min read →

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won St. Blazey vs Tiverton Town?

Tiverton Town won 2-1. Our pre-match pick was St. Blazey draw no bet.

What was the final score of St. Blazey vs Tiverton Town?

St. Blazey 1-2 Tiverton Town (full time).

When was St. Blazey vs Tiverton Town?

St. Blazey played Tiverton Town on Sat 5 Sep · 15:00 BST in the FA Cup at TBC.

More FA Cup This Week

See all FA Cup fixtures →

With a perfectly even xG profile and no form advantage for either side, the safest bet is to back St. Blazey not to be beaten, i.e. a draw‑no‑bet on the home side.

Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org

Written by Robbo

Lead Predictions Writer, TerraceBet — Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups